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It is well known that high-frequency asset returns are fat-tailed relative to the Gaussian distribution tails are typically reduced but not eliminated when returns are standardized by volatilities estimated from popular models such as GARCH. We consider two major dollar exchange rates, and we...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012471288
We compare the out-of-sample forecasting performance of univariate homoskedastic, GARCH, autoregressive and nonparametric models for conditional variances, using five bilateral weekly exchange rates for the dollar, 1973-1989. For a one week horizon, GARCH models tend to make slightly more...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012474328
Volatility permeates modern financial theories and decision making processes. As such, accurate measures and good … forecasts of future volatility are critical for the implementation and evaluation of asset pricing theories. In response to this …, a voluminous literature has emerged for modeling the temporal dependencies in financial market volatility at the daily …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012472795
forecasting of daily and lower frequency volatility and return distributions. Most procedures for modeling and forecasting … ARCH or stochastic volatility models, which often perform poorly at intraday frequencies. Use of realized volatility … variation, we formally develop the links between the conditional covariancematrix and the concept of realized volatility. Next …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012470566
We revisit time-variation in the Phillips curve, applying new Bayesian panel methods with breakpoints to US and European Union disaggregate data. Our approach allows us to accurately estimate both the number and timing of breaks in the Phillips curve. It further allows us to determine the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014250170
Intraday movements in the yen/dollar rate are examined over the 1980-86 period using opening and closing quotes in the New York and Tokyo markets. The results indicate that random-walk behavior is violated about half of the time in various subsamples. However, the economic significance of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012476358
-term business survey conducted by Bank of Japan), GDP, industrial production (preliminary), PPI, CPI (Tokyo area), the unemployment … components have return impacts also have impacts on deals and volatility. The announcement itself, in addition to the magnitude … of surprise, is found to increase the deals and price volatility in the immediately after the announcement. In addition …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012463629
We model the conditional mean and volatility of stock returns as a latent vector autoregressive (VAR) process to study … although the conditional correlation between the mean and volatility is negative, the unconditional correlation is positive due …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012469657
"Fixing" in the foreign exchange market is a market practice that determines the bid-ask-mid-point exchange rate at a scheduled time, 10am in Tokyo and 4pm in London. The fixing exchange rate is then applied to the settlement of foreign exchange transactions between banks and retail customers...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012455860
the relation between exchange rate variability and stock return volatility and by decomposing this relation into … rates, we find a significant increase in the volatility of U.S. multinational monthly stock returns corresponding to the … period of increased exchange rate variability. This increase in stock return volatility is also significant relative to the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012473547