The ordinary least square method (OLS) is frequently used for the parameters estimation of different functional relationships. Having in view a series of properties revealed by the author, this paper presents the factors that determine the size of the estimated parameters and coefficients of...

The aim of the paper is to study the nature of normalization in Structural VAR models. Noting that normalization is the integral part of identification of a model, we provide a general characterization of the normalization. In consequence some the easy–to–check conditions for a Structural...

Graph-theoretic methods of causal search based in the ideas of Pearl (2000), Spirtes, Glymour, and Scheines (2000), and others have been applied by a number of researchers to economic data, particularly by Swanson and Granger (1997) to the problem of finding a data-based contemporaneous causal...

This paper addresses how to enhance the role of data in structural model design by utilizing structural breaks and superfluous information as auxiliary tools of exact identification. To illustrate the procedure and to study the simultaneous interplay between financial variables and the real side...

We find empirical evidence of a financial accelerator using a data based procedure of Structural Model Design. Credit to firms, asset prices and aggregate economic activity interact over the business cycle in our empirical model of a dynamic economy. Furthermore, the interdependence between...

In many time series models, an infinite number of moments can be used for estimation in a large sample. I supply a technically undemanding proof of a condition for optimal instrumental variables use of such moments in a parametric model. I also illustrate application of the condition in...

This paper addresses how to enhance the role of data in structural model design by utilizing structural breaks and superfluous information as auxiliary tools of exact identification. To illustrate the procedure and to study the simultaneous interplay between financial variables and the real side...

We find empirical evidence of a financial accelerator using a data based procedure of Structural Model Design. Credit to firms, asset prices and aggregate economic activity interact over the business cycle in our empirical model of a dynamic economy. Furthermore, the interdependence between...

Abstract: This paper continues a research born in 1993 as a consequence of the concern regarding the increase in Colombian violence, and especially for its escalation during the 1990’s, its objective is to create an econometric model capable of forecasting the path of terrorist murder under...

Campbell and Shiller average 10 years of real S&P 500 earnings to construct its Cyclically Adjusted P/E ratio, or CAPE, which they then use to forecast its future 10-year returns. In essence, Campbell and Shiller kill two birds with one large stone - they use the 10-year average to reduce noise...