In this paper a dynamic bi-factor model with Markov switching is proposed to measure and predict turning points of the German business cycle. It estimates simultaneously the composite leading indicator (CLI) and composite coincident indicator (CCI) together with corresponding probabilities of...

The appropriately selected leading indicators can substantially improve the forecasting of the peaks and troughs of the business cycle. Using the novel methodology of the dynamic bi-factor model with Markov switching and the data for three largest European economies (France, Germany, and UK) we...

The appropriately selected leading indicators can substantially improve the forecasting of the peaks and troughs of the business cycle. Using the novel methodology of the dynamic bi-factor model with Markov switching and the data for the three largest European economies (France, Germany, and UK)...

This paper proposes a dynamic bi-factor model with Markov switching which detects and predicts turning points of the German business cycle. It estimates simultaneously the composite leading indicator (CLI) and composite coincident indicator (CCI) together with corresponding probabilities of a...

This papers develops a dynamic factor models with regime switching to account for the decreasing volatility of the U.S. economy observed since the mid-1980s. Apart from the Markov switching capturing the cyclical fluctuations, an additional type of regime switching is introduced to allow...

The appropriately selected leading indicators can substantially improve the forecasting of the peaks and troughs of the business cycle. Using the novel methodology of the dynamic bi-factor model with Markov switching and the data for three largest European economies (France, Germany, and UK) we...

This article’s objective is to create the Composite Coincident Indicator – CCI for the Czech economy, which is useful for monitoring of the Czech business cycle and its comparison with the GDP and the Index of Industrial Production. In the theoretical part of this article, we describe three...

This paper has two objectives. The first one is to build an index of coincident indicators of economic activity n the Haitian economy during the identified cycles using Hardin and Pagan (2001) algorithm. The second objective is to enable policymakers to gauge with relative accuracy the...

This article´s objective is to suggest and create the composite leading indicators and their importance for monitoring in a short term prediction of economic cycles in the V4. We describe in detail the methodologies of OECD and Eurostat, which deal with the prediction of the economic cycles in...

The main objective of this article is to suggest and create the composite leading indicators for a short term prediction of the business cycles in Poland and Slovakia. In the theoretical part we define the composite leading indicator and its importance for the monitoring of the economic cycles....