-neutrality; leads to a strong positive correlation between inflation and output; and contributes significantly to output volatility. We …

This paper investigates the accuracy and heterogeneity of output growth and inflation forecasts during the current and …

pronounced increase of aggregate US producer price inflation. …

situation poses to price stability. We propose to regard the central banker as a risk manager who aims to contain inflation … increased, we find that, as of September 2002, with the exception of Japan, there is no evidence of substantial deflation risks …. We also put the estimates of deflation risk for the United States, Germany and Japan into historical perspective. We find …

The Calvo contract Phillips Curve is widely indexed for general inflation, using either core inflation or other … that optimal indexation would by contrast use the rational expectation of inflation. If this scheme is implemented, the …

We study optimal price setting by a monopolist in an infinite horizon model with stochastic costs, moderate inflation … steady state short-run Phillips curve implies that the output loss associated with a small negative inflation surprise is … about twice as large as the output gain associated with a small positive inflation surprise. …

-term inflation is derived from the dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model with state-dependent pricing developed by …-type price-setting as a special case. It describes current inflation as a function of lagged inflation, expected future inflation … find that current inflation depends positively on its own lagged values giving rise to intrinsic persistence as a source of …

. Whereas our methodology is general, we focus on an extended macro-model with unobservable processes for the inflation target … inflation target dominates the variation in the 'level factor' whereas monetary policy shocks dominate the variation in the …