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In this paper, we develop an aggregation procedure using time-varying weights for constructing the common component of international economic fluctuations. The methodology for deriving time-varying weights is based on some stylized features of the data documented in the paper. The model allows...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005822387
Nowcasting has been a challenge in the recent economic crisis. We introduce the Toll Index, a new monthly indicator for business cycle forecasting and demonstrate its relevance using German data. The index measures the monthly transportation activity performed by heavy transport vehicles across...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008854242
inflation (sunspot shocks) affecting nominal wage bargaining. Since the estimated parameters fall near the locus of Hopf … bifurcations, country-specific expected inflation shocks can replicate the strong persistence and heterogeneity observed in …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005002829
the inflation rate, but they very seldom cut nominal wages. This pattern suggests that workers exhibit a special … compare the inflation rate to the wage change before it becomes clear whether the change increases or decreases utility, thus … inflation rate. Although emotions may benefit individual workers, by strengthening their bargaining position and preventing wage …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005763663
This paper provides a model that can account for the almost uniform staggering of wage contracts in some countries as well as for the markedly nonuniform staggering in others. In the model, short and long contracts as well as long contracts concluded in different periods are strategic...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008548722
This paper provides a new explanation of why inflation is sluggish in response to aggregate demand shocks and why … rationale for a prolonged inverse relation between inflation and unemployment. The paper suggests that the interaction of … inflation persistence and unemployment persistence may offer a possible explanation of high and prolonged European unemployment. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005702997
In this paper, we propose a search and matching model with nominal stickiness à la Calvo in the wage bargaining. We analyze the properties of the model, first, in the context of a typical real business cycle model driven by stochastic productivity shocks and second, in a fully specified...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005703177
period. The workers' bargaining power in the hours negotiation affects both unemployment volatility and inflation persistence … cost determination. This set-up produces realistic labor market statistics together with inflation persistence …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005703208
" - although they generate price inertia, they cannot account for the stylised fact of inflation persistence. It is thus commonly … asserted that, in the context of the new Phillips curve (NPC), inflation is a jump variable. We argue that this "persistency … equilibrium setting (in which real variables not only affect inflation, but are also influenced by it), standard wage …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005703349
employment and hours affecting inflation dynamics via marginal costs. We find that the response of unemployment and inflation to … persistent movements of aggregate inflation. Moreover, the impact of a monetary policy shock on unemployment and inflation …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005703779