We forecast recession probabilities for the United States, Germany and Japan. The predictions are based on the widely … reached for the United States, the ProbVAR forecasts are slightly worse for Germany, but considerably inferior for Japan. …

We forecast recession probabilities for the United States, Germany and Japan. The predictions are based on the widely … reached for the United States, the ProbVAR forecasts are slightly worse for Germany, but considerably inferior for Japan …

, throughout the period of analysis, the U.S. (1980s and 2000s) and Japan (1970s and 2000s) have been the major transmitters of …

, throughout the period of analysis, the U.S. (1980s and 2000s) and Japan (1970s and 2000s) have been the major transmitters of …

estimates for inflation forecasting both in the short term (one-quarter and one-year ahead) and the medium term (two-year and …

inflation are now less well informed by macroeconomic conditions; because expectations are important in the setting of current …-period prices, inflation is therefore less sensitive to macroeconomic conditions. To distinguish between our two hypotheses, we … bring to bear information on inflation expectations from surveys, which allow us to distinguish changes in the sensitivity …

Using state-space modeling, we extract information from surveys of long-term inflation expectations and multiple … quarterly inflation series to undertake a real-time decomposition of quarterly headline PCE and GDP-deflator inflation rates … approaches to real-time forecasting of headline PCE inflation. We find that performance is enhanced if forecasting equations are …

estimates for inflation forecasting both in the short term (one-quarter and one-year ahead) and the medium term (two-year and … measure appears superior to all others in all respects. - Output gap ; real-time data ; euro area ; inflation forecasts ; real …

modifies a wage–price-setting (WPS) model to forecast U.S. inflation over one- to three-year horizons. The out …-of-sample forecast results show that productivity growth is a useful predictor of inflation, in the sense that the modified WPS model … improved further by combining productivity growth with anchored inflation expectations. Interestingly, during the 2000 …