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This paper elaborates on the link between financial market volatility and real economic activity. Using monthly data for Germany from 1968 to 1998, we specify GARCH models to capture the variability of stock market prices, of the real exchange rate, and of a long-term and of a short-term rate of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009276110
In a context of high economic uncertainty, this paper aims to analyse the impacts of uncertainty on income and wealth … this relationship in these countries and the first worldwide to assess the relationship between uncertainty and wealth … inequality. For that purpose, we use mixed-frequency SVAR models and proxy the uncertainty shock using the economic policy …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013290239
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10001623779
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013261010
We propose a new instrument to identify uncertainty shocks in a SVAR model with external instruments. The instrument is … constructed by exploiting variations in the price of gold around events that capture periods of changes in uncertainty. The … variations in the price of gold around the events correlate with the underlying uncertainty shocks, due to the perception of gold …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011602536
variables into contributions from country-specific uncertainty and uncertainty common to all countries. We find that the common …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011306276
This paper investigates if the impact of uncertainty shocks on the US economy has changed over time. To this end, we … develop an extended Factor Augmented VAR model that simultaneously allows the estimation of a measure of uncertainty and its … time-varying impact on a range of variables. We find that the impact of uncertainty shocks on real activity and financial …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010472799
This paper uses a FAVAR model with stochastic volatility to estimate the impact of uncertainty shocks on real income … of the response to uncertainty shocks across states. The response is largest in Michigan, Indiana and Arkansas while the … real income in New York, Alaska and New Mexico seems least sensitive to uncertainty. We relate the cross section of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011448758
We investigate how a macroeconomic uncertainty shock affects the labor market. We focus on the uncertainty transmission … factors from such indicators into a framework that can simultaneously estimate historical macroeconomic uncertainty and its …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012030061
variables for a large number of countries and decompose the variance of each variable in terms of contributions from uncertainty … common to all countries (global uncertainty), region-specific uncertainty and country-specific uncertainty. Among other … findings, the estimates suggest that global uncertainty plays a primary role in explaining the volatility of inflation …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011904508