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Should shocks be part of our macro-modeling tool kit - for example, as a way of modeling discontinuities in fiscal … policy or big moves in the financial markets? What are shocks, and how can we best put them to use? In heterodox … macroeconomics, shocks tend to come in two broad types, with some exceptions for hybrid cases. What I call Type 1 shocks are one …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009752205
Should shocks be part of our macro-modeling tool kit—for example, as a way of modeling discontinuities in fiscal … policy or big moves in the financial markets? What are shocks, and how can we best put them to use? In heterodox … macroeconomics, shocks tend to come in two broad types, with some exceptions for hybrid cases. What I call Type 1 shocks are one …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010667391
Should shocks be part of our macro-modeling tool kit — for example, as a way of modeling discontinuities in fiscal … policy or big moves in the financial markets? What are shocks, and how can we best put them to use? In heterodox … macroeconomics, shocks tend to come in two broad types, with some exceptions for hybrid cases. What I call Type 1 shocks are one …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013080667
Using Gretl, I apply ARMA, Vector ARMA, VAR, state-space model with a Kalman filter, transfer-function and intervention models, unit root tests, cointegration test, volatility models (ARCH, GARCH, ARCH-M, GARCH-M, Taylor-Schwert GARCH, GJR, TARCH, NARCH, APARCH, EGARCH) to analyze quarterly time...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012904559
The present essay addresses the epistemic difficulties involved in achieving consensus with respect to the Hayek-Keynes debate. It is argued that the debate cannot be settled on the basis of the observable evidence; or, more precisely, that the empirical implications of the relevant theories are...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014155833
What is the main limitation of much modern macro-economic theory, among the failings pointed out by William R. White at the 2010 Mayekawa Lecture? We argue that the main deficiency is a failure to incorporate the possibility of default, including that of banks, into the core of the analysis....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009318530
What is the main limitation of much modern macroeconomic theory, among the failings pointed out by William R. White at the 2010 Mayekawa Lecture? We argue that the main deficiency is a failure to incorporate the possibility of default, including that of banks, into the core of the analysis. With...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009364152
A more integrated global financial system has implications on the economic volatility of small open economies. This paper simulates the impact of a short term shock originating from the global financial system on small open economies in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN). The...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013124358
We explore the effects of forward guidance at the zero lower bound when there is uncertainty over the lift-off date arising from: (i) the imperfect credibility of time-inconsistent forward-guidance promises; (ii) incomplete communication. We use a simple New Keynesian model to demonstrate that a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012959532
Even if Keynes makes an error with its investment multiplier, he has à good intuition investment is the key lever. The main mistake in order to manage economy is due to Friedman who stars with the right result to obtain : maximize Wealth, but he confuses wealth created with a permanent income...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013211155