The recovery in Euroland has started at the beginning of this year but it has remained rather moderate. Real GDP increased at an annual rate of less than 1½ percent during the first half of 2002. Capacity utilization has declined further and unemployment continued to go up. While exports have...

The economy in the euro area has turned around. While GDP stagnated during the second half of 2001, there are more and more signs that output will increase considerably in the first half of this year. All in all, the slowdown has not been very pronounced. One indication for this is that in 2001,...

Economic activity in the euro area has weakened since last summer. In the second half of 2002, real GDP increased at an annualized rate of around 1 percent only. Economy-wide capacity utilization has further declined and the situation on labor markets has worsened. The increase in consumer...

The economic situation in the euro area continues to be weak. In the course of 2003, real GDP has only stagnated. Several factors prevented the expected recovery to materialize. Last year’s collapse of stock prices dampened activity, so did the high oil price. In addition, the uncertainty in...

Inflation is a monetary phenomenon. While this statement is widely accepted in terms of a long-run relationship, the quantity theory has been made operational also for the short-run dynamics of inflation by so-called Pstar models. An error correction model with quarterly data for the Euro Area...