function of a sample of exchange rate forecasters is asymmetric in the forecast error. Using forecasts of the euro …

genanntes Herdenverhalten zeigen. Auf der Basis unterschiedlicher theoretischer Modellansätze wird skizziert, warum Prognostiker ….S.-Dollar eingesetzt, um empirisch auf Herdenverhalten zu testen. Die Ergebnisse deuten darauf hin, dass nicht Herdenverhalten, sondern … Anti-Herding vorzuherrschen scheint. Die Prognostiker scheinen daher im Hinblick auf ihre Prognosen "Produktdifferenzierung …

We examine rationality, forecasting accuracy, and economic value of the survey-based exchange rate forecasts for 10 … 2004 to 2012, we find strong evidence that the forecasts for developing countries are biased at all forecast horizons. For … increases again at the 24-month horizon. Based on the magnitude of the forecast errors and the direction of change, long …

also find that forecasters learn from their own forecast errors (rather than from consensus forecast errors) and that they … overreact when forming expectations (as indicated by their forecast revisions). Finally, while forecasters have worse … forecasting performance relative to a simple benchmark, the forecasters who emphasize the real exchange rate and do not overreact …

are biased towards (away from) the consensus forecast. Our empirical findings provide strong evidence of anti-herding of … studied empirically whether evidence of herding or antiherding behavior of exchange-rate forecasters can be detected in the … cross-section of forecasts. Emerging market exchange-rate forecasts are consistent with herding (anti-herding) if forecasts …

markets. We analyze the respective forecasting accuracy and our results indicate that there exist substantial differences …