Showing 1 - 10 of 208
We show that decentralized privately created money with unstable values can hinder the traded, more transaction-friction sensitive, sector of the economy. We do so in the context of the NationalBanking Act of 1864 in the United States that created a new federally-regulated, fully-backed currency...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013210088
In line with Keynes' intuition, volatility in the stock market and in real economic activity are linked by expectations of long term profits. We show that analysts' optimism about the long term earnings growth of S&P 500 firms is associated with a near term boom in major US financial markets,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014337811
diversify away local liquidity shortfalls, allowing it to maintain 49 percent higher credit growth from 1929 to 1933 than …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014421204
Using text from 200 million pages of 13,000 US local newspapers and machine learning methods, we construct a 170-year-long measure of economic sentiment at the country and state levels, that expands existing measures in both the time series (by more than a century) and the cross-section. Our...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014468226
varies over time. These information dynamics determine the evolution of credit, output and productivity, which feeds back … into incentives to produce information. We characterize this intricate dynamic relation. A credit boom happens when …. Information about firms' individual productivities over credit booms can prevent or tame the crisis, acting as an endogenous …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014322900
firms. This paper studies the macroeconomic implications of these financial links. In our model, trade credit is the outcome … credit multiplier: suppliers can enforce repayment of these IOUs, and they can discount these bills with banks to obtain … of suppliers. Using Italian data, we find that the credit multiplier is sizable and show that trade credit amplified the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014247947
This paper surveys the recent empirical literature on historical banking crises, defined as events taking place before 1980. Advances in data collection and identification have provided new insights into the causes and consequences of crises both immediately and over the long run. We highlight...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014248010
Disequilibrating macro shocks affect different firms' prospects differently, increasing idiosyncratic variation in forward-looking stock returns before affecting economic growth. Consistent with most such shocks from 1947 to 2020 enhancing productivity, increased idiosyncratic stock return...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013210099
increases considerably. We investigate the causal pathways that lead to this result and argue that credit creation and asset …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014226155
rate that introduces a feedback loop between aggregate demand and credit conditions. Contrary to the Mundellian paradigm …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013537789