The purpose of this article is to describe how inflation analysis and forecasting has been carried out in the Bank …

In Ireland the link between real disequilibrium (such as the unemployment gap) and inflation (either price or wage) is … blurred by external factors, operating through traded goods price inflation. Attempts to extract information about the … unobservable NAIRU from aggregate inflation measures, such as the HICP or wages inflation, are likely to be swamped by these …

In this paper we focus on the development of multiple time series models for forecasting Irish Inflation. The Bayesian … evidence in the data with any prior information which may also be available. A large selection of inflation indicators are … performance which can be obtained by the use of Bayesian techniques. In general, however, forecasts of inflation contain a high …

This paper examines alternative statistically-based measures of core inflation in Ireland over the period 1976-1999. A … skewed. This would suggest there is considerable ‘statistical noise’ in the measured inflation rate, motivating the use of … improvement in root mean square error (RMSE) relative to a benchmark measure of core inflation. This improvement is even larger …

(ARIMA) time series models for forecasting Irish inflation. A framework for ARIMA forecasting is drawn up. It considers two …