The agent-based (behavioural) model is extended to include a financial friction on the supply side. Firms finance capital purchases using external financing, but need to pay for it in advance. In addition, firm financing constraint and net worth are determined by stock market prices, which can...

This paper reports the results of a detailed examination of the hypothesis that improved inventory management and production techniques are responsible for the decline in the volatility of U.S. GDP growth. Our innovations are to look at the data at a finer level of disaggregation than previous...

We investigate the sources of the great changes in GDP volatility observed from 1966 to 2000. We develop a general equilibrium model and calibrate it to US data in order to characterize the contribution of micro level productivity shocks, inter-sectoral linkages and households' behavior to...

This paper presents empirical evidence on the nature of idiosyncratic shocks to firms and discusses its role for firm behavior and aggregate fluctuations. We document that firm-level sales and productivity are hit by heavy-tailed shocks and follow a nonlinear stochastic process, thus departing...

We investigate the sources of the great changes in GDP volatility observed from 1966 to 2000. We develop a general equilibrium model and calibrate it to US data in order to characterize the contribution of micro level productivity shocks, inter-sectoral linkages and households' behavior to...

​I​In this paper we use a New Keynesian model to explain why volatility transfer from high frequency to low frequency cycles can and did occur during the period commonly referred to as the "great moderation". The model suggests that an increase in inflation aversion and/or a reduction to a...

Ljungqvist and Sargent (2017) (LS) show that unemployment fluctuations can be understood in terms of a quantity they call the "fundamental surplus." However, their analysis ignores risk premia, a force that Hall (2017) shows is important in understanding unemployment fluctuations. We show how...

The durables manufacturing sector is modeled as a production chain consisting of firms that produce to order and firms that produce to stock. Output movements are driven solely by shocks to final demand. Separate demand models are estimated over four separate sub-samples spanning the 1967-2011...

We study the origin of comovement in economic fluctuations across regions in India through a unique administrative dataset on plant-level sales. Regional sales exhibit a high level of comovement that can be traced to a small number of large plants located in different regions, indicating a...

A number of explanations for the observed decline in GDP volatility since the mid-1980s have been offered. Valerie Ramey and Daniel Vine (2003a, 2003b) in a couple of recent papers offer the hypothesis that a decline in the persistence of sales is an explanation for the decline in GDP...