This Selected Issues paper estimates both Guatemala’s potential output and output gap using a wide range of econometric techniques. The analysis suggests that Guatemala’s potential output growth is about 3.5 percent for the whole sample period and that the output gap is almost...

This Selected Issues paper analyzes sustaining potential growth in Aruba. As in the other Caribbean countries, there are growing concerns in Aruba about the slowdown in economic growth over the past two decades and the consequent tepid outlook for potential growth. Tackling such concerns...

Effective public investment requires governments to address the "recurrent cost problem" to ensure operations and maintenance (O&M) expenditures are sufficient to sustain the flow of productive public capital services to private factors of production. Building on the model of Buffie et al...

Following very strong growth during the period 2000–12, emerging market economies (EMEs) experienced a slowdown in the last couple of years. This paper examines the supply-side drivers of the strong growth performance of 63 EMEs and investigates if the recent slowdown in growth is...

This paper looks at the empirical record whether big infrastructure and public capital drives have succeeded in accelerating economic growth in low-income countries. It looks at big long-lasting drives in public capital spending, as these were arguably clear and exogenous policy decisions. On...

This paper reviews economic stabilization and growth in Portugal during the 1970s. Following a decade of rapid growth with external equilibrium, the Portuguese economy in the early 1970s suffered a series of major shocks. The paper highlights that the problem of managing economic growth with a...

This paper presents an overview of recent U.S. fiscal developments and discusses possible implications of the sharp turn around in the government’s fiscal position. Against this back ground, it also reviews key policy challenges that will need to be addressed to cope with the mounting...

The Kingdom of Lesotho’s 2005 Article IV Consultation reports that the government’s fiscal position and the external current account have improved markedly. The authorities are preparing an action plan, in collaboration with development partners, to improve the business climate....

This paper reviews Zambia’s Second Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper (PRSP) Implementation Progress Report. The report reviews the status of the Poverty Reducing Programs (PRPs) for July 2003–June 2004. It notes improvement in funding to priority PRPs from K140 billion in January...

This 2005 Article IV Consultation highlights that macroeconomic developments in Madagascar in 2003 and 2004 were dominated by the sharp depreciation of the national currency, and rising inflation pressures, with year-over-year consumer price inflation reaching 30 percent at end-February 2005. At...