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We estimate a three-region (DE-REA-RoW) structural macroeconomic model, and we provide a counterfactual on how nominal exchange rate flexibility would have affected the German trade balance (TB) by simulating the shocks of the estimated model under a counterfactual flexible exchange rate regime....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011983671
In this paper, sound public finances under the euro means sustainability in the long term instead of short- and medium …-term fiscal discipline. The challenges to sustainability are identified for the four largest euro area member states, and several … resort for a euro area government under liquidity shortage to prevent it from developing into a general financial crisis …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012238506
How do trade costs affect international trade? This paper offers a new approach. We rely on a flexible gravity equation that predicts variable trade cost elasticities, both across and within country pairs. We apply this framework to the effect of currency unions on international trade. While we...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011867116
The euro area will not have a centralised budget and smoothing of country-specific asymmetric shocks via private …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011444463
no evidence of a euro effect on trade flows among early euro adopters up to the year 2002. Second, this finding is robust … to extending the sample period to incorporate data up to 2013, covering five additional euro accessions. Third, while … there is no robust evidence of a euro effect, there is evidence that intra-EU trade flows have expanded faster than the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011597238
is described using a stochastic regime-switching model; second, the euro area governments’ responses to uncertain … macroeconomic policies in Greece are considered. The model's mechanism and assumptions allow either for a Grexit from the euro area … understand key drivers of the long-winded negotiations between the Syiza government and the euro area governments. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011406792
This paper studies the reaction of the mean and volatility of the euro-dollar exchange rate to statements of ECB … officials during the first years of EMU. We focus on statements on monetary policy and the (potential) strength of the euro. We …. In some cases there are effects of statements on the level of the euro-dollar rate. Efforts to talk up the euro have not …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011507830
The conflicting standpoints on reforming the euro are creating more controversies than practical results. Mistrust …, reforming the euro successfully calls for a convincing high-level commitment to preserve the euro also in unexpected …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012119522
bond markets and improved economic sentiment, as reflected in higher equity prices. In contrast, passive euro liquidity …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011942687
Macroeconomic adjustment in the euro area periphery was more recessionary than pre-crisis imbalances would have …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012033212