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Navigating ambiguity : imprecise probabilities and the updating of disease risk beliefs
Kerwin, Jason; Pandey, Divya - 2023
Probabilistic risk beliefs are key drivers of economic and health decisions, but people are not always certain about their beliefs. We study these "imprecise probabilities", also known as ambiguous beliefs. We show that imprecision is measurable separately from the levels of risk beliefs. People...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014390526
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Interest rate hysteresis in macroeconomic investment under uncertainty
Belke, Ansgar; Göcke, Matthias - 2019
The interest rate is generally considered as an important driver of macroeconomic investment. As an innovation, this … paper derives the exact shape of the "hysteretic" impact of changes in the interest rate on macroeconomic investment under … the scenarios of both certainty and uncertainty. We capture the direct interest rate-hysteresis on the investments and the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012099522
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On measuring uncertainty : snakes and ladders
Junankar, Pramod N. - 2016
surge in the stock market would be self-correcting. Recent papers have discussed the role of "uncertainty" and its … measurement in influencing economic decisions. They attempt to measure uncertainty by indexes of volatility of the stock market …, GDP, forecaster disagreement, mentions of uncertainty in news media, and the dispersion of productivity shocks to firms …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011543578
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Intended college attendance : evidence from an experiment on college returns and cost
Bleemer, Zachary; Zafar, Basit - 2015
Despite a robust college premium, college attendance rates in the US have remained stagnant and exhibit a substantial socioeconomic gradient. We focus on information gaps - specifically, incomplete information about college benefits and costs - as a potential explanation for these patterns. For...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011376217
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Competitiveness and the gender gap among yung business professionals
Reuben, Ernesto; Sapienza, Paola; Zingales, Luigi - 2015
Important gender differences in earnings and career trajectories persist. Particularly, in professions such as business. Gender differences in competitiveness have been proposed as a potential explanation. Using an incentivized measure of competitiveness, this paper investigates whether...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011376220
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Gender differences in wage expectations : sorting, children, and negotiation styles
Kiessling, Lukas; Pinger, Pia; Seegers, Philipp; … - 2019
This paper presents evidence from a large-scale study on gender differences in expected wages before labor market entry. Based on data for over 15,000 students, we document a significant and large gender gap in wage expectations that closely resembles actual wage differences, prevails across...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012060551
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Disappointment aversion and social comparisons in a real-effort competition
Gächter, Simon; Huang, Lingbo; Sefton, Martin - 2017
We present an experiment to investigate the source of disappointment aversion in a sequential real-effort competition. Specifically, we study the contribution of social comparison effects to the disappointment aversion previously identified in a two-person real-effort competition (Gill and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011647659
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Randomizing endowments : an experimental study of rational expectations and reference-dependent preferences
Götte, Lorenz; Harms, Annette; Sprenger, Charles - 2014
An important advance in the study of reference-dependent preferences is the discipline provided by coherent accounts of reference point formation. Kőszegi and Rabin (2006) provide such discipline by positing a reference point grounded in rational expectations. We examine the predictions of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010436164
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Preferences and biases in educational choices and labor market expectations : shrinking the black box of gender
Reuben, Ernesto; Wiswall, Matthew; Zafar, Basit - 2013
Standard observed characteristics explain only part of the differences between men and women in education choices and labor market trajectories. Using an experiment to derive students' levels of overconfidence, and preferences for competitiveness and risk, this paper investigates whether these...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009792974
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Does everyone use probabilities? : intuitive and rational decisions about stockholding
Binswanger, Johannes; Salm, Martin - 2013
to a better understanding of the role of cognitive skills in decision making under uncertainty. -- subjective …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009721396