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Navigating Ambiguity: Imprecise Probabilities and the Updating of Disease Risk Beliefs

Kerwin, Jason; Pandey, Divya - 2023

Probabilistic risk beliefs are key drivers of economic and health decisions, but people are not always certain about their beliefs. We study these "imprecise probabilities", also known as ambiguous beliefs. We show that imprecision is measurable separately from the levels of risk beliefs. People...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014469382

On Measuring Uncertainty: Snakes and Ladders

Junankar, Pramod N. (Raja) - 2016

surge in the stock market would be self-correcting. Recent papers have discussed the role of "uncertainty" and its … measurement in influencing economic decisions. They attempt to measure uncertainty by indexes of volatility of the stock market …, GDP, forecaster disagreement, mentions of uncertainty in news media, and the dispersion of productivity shocks to firms …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011559672

Interest Rate Hysteresis in Macroeconomic Investment under Uncertainty

Belke, Ansgar H.; Göcke, Matthias - 2019

The interest rate is generally considered as an important driver of macroeconomic investment. As an innovation, this … paper derives the exact shape of the "hysteretic" impact of changes in the interest rate on macroeconomic investment under … the scenarios of both certainty and uncertainty. We capture the direct interest rate-hysteresis on the investments and the …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012141203

Does everyone use probabilities? Intuitive and rational decisions about stockholding

Binswanger, Johannes; Salm, Martin - 2013

to a better understanding of the role of cognitive skills in decision making under uncertainty. …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010293142

Information Characteristics and Errors in Expectations: Experimental Evidence

Antoniou, Constantinos; Harrison, Glenn; Lau, Morten; … - 2015

We design an experiment to test the hypothesis that, in violation of Bayes Rule, some people respond more forcefully to the strength of information than to its weight. We provide incentives to motivate effort, use naturally occurring information, and control for risk attitude. We find that the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011401661

Competitiveness and the Gender Gap among Young Business Professionals

Reuben, Ernesto; Sapienza, Paola; Zingales, Luigi - 2015

Important gender differences in earnings and career trajectories persist. Particularly, in professions such as business. Gender differences in competitiveness have been proposed as a potential explanation. Using an incentivized measure of competitiveness, this paper investigates whether...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011401709

Intended College Attendance: Evidence from an Experiment on College Returns and Cost

Bleemer, Zachary; Zafar, Basit - 2015

Despite a robust college premium, college attendance rates in the US have remained stagnant and exhibit a substantial socioeconomic gradient. We focus on information gaps – specifically, incomplete information about college benefits and costs – as a potential explanation for these patterns....

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011401724

Preferences and Biases in Educational Choices and Labor Market Expectations: Shrinking the Black Box of Gender

Reuben, Ernesto; Wiswall, Matthew; Zafar, Basit - 2013

Standard observed characteristics explain only part of the differences between men and women in education choices and labor market trajectories. Using an experiment to derive students' levels of overconfidence, and preferences for competitiveness and risk, this paper investigates whether these...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010328926

Disappointment Aversion and Social Comparisons in a Real-Effort Competition

Gächter, Simon; Huang, Lingbo; Sefton, Martin - 2017

We present an experiment to investigate the source of disappointment aversion in a sequential real-effort competition. Specifically, we study the contribution of social comparison effects to the disappointment aversion previously identified in a two-person real-effort competition (Gill and...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011653482

Workers' Perceptions of Earnings Growth and Employment Risk

Koşar, Gizem; van der Klaauw, Wilbert - 2023

expected earnings growth and earnings growth uncertainty and in the perceived likelihood of a voluntary and involuntary job …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014296757

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