This paper presents a stochastic integrated model to forecast the German population and labour supply until 2060. Within a cohort-component approach, the population forecast applies principal components to birth, mortality, emigration and immigration rates. The labour force participation rates...

The aim of this paper is to show possible consequences of changes in labor force participation of women and the connection between fertility and labor force participation on the future demographic and economic development in Germany. For this purpose a projection model based on micro-data...

Der demographische Wandel stellt unsere Gesellschaft vor große Herausforderungen. Gleichzeitig macht ein Rückblick auf die vergangene Dekade im deutschen Arbeitsmarkt deutlich, dass der Aufbau zusätzlicher Beschäftigung durch eine verbesserte Erwerbsintegration ein bedeutsamer Schlüssel zur...

Population changes are decisive for growth performances. This has been shown in a number of country studies, using time series data. The analysis is here extended in two dimensions: 1) the importance of demographics for growth is taking in to account a regional dimension allowing for spatial...

Over the past 40 years, Australia has experienced significant changes to the proportion of the population that is attached to its labour market. From the early 1980s, the aggregate labour force participation rate rose steadily, climbing from around 60 per cent in 1983 to almost 66 per cent in...

Many countries have implemented social programmes providing long-term financial or in-kind entitlements. These programmes often focus on specific age-groups and consequently their expenditure streams are subject to demographic change. Given the strains already existing on public budgets,...

This paper applies time series analysis to distinguish between cyclical and demographic causes of the decline of the labor force participation rate. Some public discussions suggest that the decline of US unemployment from its 2009 peak of 10 percent to about 6 percent by mid-2014 grossly...

In the last decade the available labor force has expanded in Germany-despite the decline in the working-age population. The reason: labor market participation has increased, for women in particular and older people in general. Also noticeable was a rise in qualification level because...

This paper uses the 2011 China Household Finance Survey data to estimate the effect of change in housing value on homeowners' labor force participation. Using the average housing capital gains of other homes in the same community as an instrument for the housing capital gains of a given...

We explore future job creation needs under conditions of demographic, economic, and technological change. First, we estimate the implications for job creation in 2020-2030 of population growth, changes in labor force participation, and the achievement of plausible target unemployment rates,...