Macroeconomic models of nominal exchange rates perform poorly. In sample, R2 statistics as high as 10 percent are rare. Out of sample, these models are typically out-forecast by a na‹ve random walk. This paper presents a model of a new kind. Instead of relying exclusively on macroeconomic...

We built the largest dataset of high-frequency exchange rates so far. Our sample covers the spot prices and order flows of 19 currency pairs over the last 15 years measured on Reuters and EBS at the thirty-second frequency. We show that common, price-based factors describe exchange rate dynamics...

In this paper we provide evidence for Evans and Lyons' (2005b) model of an information aggregation process in FX markets using a German bank's end-user order flow from 2002 to 2003. Though customer order flow is unambiguously the vehicle incorporating non-public information into exchange rates...

Macroeconomic models of nominal exchange rates perform poorly. In sample, R2 statistics as high as 10 percent are rare. Out of sample, these models are typically out-forecast by a na‹ve random walk. This paper presents a model of a new kind. Instead of relying exclusively on macroeconomic...

This paper investigates how order flows drive dynamic co-movements of exchange rates. We allow for asymmetric correlation responses to positive/negative shocks, control for structural breaks, bid-ask spreads and volatility effect of order flows, employ alternative order flow measures, and...

The paper presents results of empirical tests with hybrid nominal exchange rate models for the Brazilian foreign exchange market, using macroeconomic and market microstructure variables. The basic model was originally proposed and tested in the German (DM/US$) and the Japanese (Y/US$) foreign...