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Government Debt and Capital Accumulation in an Era of Low Interest Rates

Mankiw, Nicholas Gregory - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2022

This essay discusses the reasons for and implications of the decline in real interest rates around the world over the past several decades. It suggests that the decline in interest rates is largely explicable from trends in saving, growth, and markups. In this environment, greater government...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013210052

Gold into Base Metals : Productivity Growth in the People's Republic of China during the Reform Period

Young, Alwyn - 2000

With minimal sleight of hand, it is possible to transform the recent growth experience of the People's Republic of China from the extraordinary into the mundane. Systematic understatement of inflation by enterprises accounts for 2.5% growth per annum in the non-agricultural economy during the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012470887

The Rise and Decline of General Laws of Capitalism

Acemoglu, Daron - 2014

Thomas Piketty's (2014) book, Capital in the 21st Century, follows in the tradition of the great classical economists, like Marx and Ricardo, in formulating general laws of capitalism to diagnose and predict the dynamics of inequality. We argue that general economic laws are unhelpful as a guide...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012457900

Interest Rate Risk and Other Determinants of Post-WWII U.S. Government Debt/GDP Dynamics

Hall, George J. - 2010

This paper uses the sequence of government budget constraints to motivate estimates of interest payments on the U.S. Federal government debt. We explain why our estimates differ conceptually and quantitatively from those reported by the U.S. government. We use our estimates to account for...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012462950

The Effects of the Ageing European Population on Economic Growth and Budgets : Implications for Immigration and Other Policies

Feldstein, Martin S. - 2006

The ageing of the population presents a major fiscal challenge for the countries of Europe. The combination of increased longevity and a reduced birth rate will directly reduce the growth rates of the European economies by slowing the growth of the capital stock and by weakening the productivity...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012465924

The Effect of Health on Economic Growth : Theory and Evidence

Bloom, David E. - 2001

Macroeconomists acknowledge the contribution of human capital to economic growth, but their empirical studies define human capital solely in terms of schooling. In this paper, we extend production function models of economic growth to account for two additional variables that microeconomists...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012470129

When Does Capital Account Liberalization Help More than It Hurts?

Arteta, Carlos - 2001

In this paper we reconsider the evidence on capital account liberalization and growth. While we find indications of a positive association, the effects vary with time, with how capital account liberalization is measured, and with how the relationship is estimated. The evidence that the effects...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012470268

Growth Economics and Reality

Brock, William A. - 2000

the perspective of economic theory as well as from the perspective of the historical experiences of the countries under … model specification. Model uncertainty consists of two types: theory uncertainty, which relates to which growth determinants … draws from the same statistical model. We propose ways to account for both theory and heterogeneity uncertainty. Finally …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012470690

A Re-examination of the Predictability of Economic Activity Using the Yield Spread

Hamilton, James D. - 2000

This paper revisits the yield spread's usefulness for predicting future real GDP growth. We show that the contribution of the spread can be decomposed into the effect of expected future changes in short rates and the effect of the term premium. We find that both factors are relevant for...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012470782

Creative Destruction and Development : Institutions, Crises, and Restructuring

Caballero, Ricardo J. - 2000

There is increasing empirical evidence that creative destruction, driven by experimentation and the adoption of new products and processes when investment is sunk, is a core mechanism of development. Obstacles to this process are likely to be obstacles to the progress in standards of living....

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012470894

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