In this paper, we investigate the dynamic link between recessions and stock market liquidity by examining the predictive content of illiquidity for US recessions. After controlling for other commonly featured recession predictors such as term spreads and credit spreads, we find that the...

Stock exchange operators compete for order flow by setting "make" fees for limit orders and "take" fees for market orders. When traders quote continuous prices, they can choose prices that perfectly neutralize any fee division, and traders stream to the exchange with the lowest total fee. The...

In this study, we analyze the effects of sovereign credit rating reviews on national stock market performances in GIIPS and BRIC countries during the European Sovereign Debt Crisis of 2009-2013. Through an event study, we test the Null Hypothesis that cumulative abnormal returns on national...

We show that U.S. corporate bond market movements during the days preceding FOMC announcements can predict monetary policy surprises, as well as the pre-FOMC stock market movements. Starting several days before an expansionary (contractionary) surprise in FOMC decisions, corporate bond prices...

What is the link between stock returns and news about economic growth? Using consensus forecasts from the Philadelphia Fed's Survey of Professional Forecasters, I find that the univariate association between stock returns and GDP growth forecast surprises is indistinguishable from zero. While...

This paper analyzes stock market reactions to election polls. Stock markets anticipate the impact of events on future cash flows. Current values depend on future cash flows and risk prospects. We posit that election polls are indications of the political platforms that are expected to win...

This paper documents that speed is crucially important for high frequency trading strategies based on U.S. macroeconomic news releases. Using order level data of the highly liquid S&P500 ETF traded on NASDAQ from January 6, 2009, to December 12, 2011, we find that a delay of 300 milliseconds (1...

This paper examines the effect of macroeconomic news announcements (MNA) on the stock market. Stocks exhibit a strong positive response to major MNA: 1 standard deviation of MNA surprise causes 11-25 bps higher returns. This response is highly time-varying and is weaker during periods of high...