This paper aims at identifying key empirical regularities characterizing the onset of a currency crisis that might be suitable for early warning purposes and proceeds by providing analysis and empirical tests of economic and financial variables both in-sample and out-of-sample in order to assess...

The analysis of the financial cycle and its interaction with the macroeconomy has become a central issue for the design of macroprudential policy since the 2007-08 financial crisis. This paper proposes the construction of financial cycle measures for the US based on a large data set of...

The analysis of the financial cycle and its interaction with the macroeconomy has become a central issue for the design of macroprudential policy since the 2007-08 financial crisis. This paper proposes the construction of financial cycle measures for the US based on a large data set of...