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The extraordinary events surrounding the Great Recession have cast a considerable doubt on the traditional sources of macroeconomic instability. In their place, economists have singled out financial and uncertainty shocks as potentially important drivers of economic fluctuations. Empirically...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012997363
Assessing the economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic is essential for policymakers, but challenging because the crisis has unfolded with extreme speed. We identify three indicators – stock market volatility, newspaper-based economic uncertainty, and subjective uncertainty in business...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012837188
This paper develops a decision-theoretic approach to policy analysis. We argue that policy evaluation should be conducted on the basis of two factors: the policymaker's preferences, and the conditional distribution of the outcomes of interest given a policy and available information. From this...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013226952
real-time, Bayesian estimation of a small monetary VAR with time-varying parameters. We use it to calculate the probability …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014265941
This paper analyses the direct and indirect trade volume and trade cost effects of uncertainty on international trade and economic welfare using a structural gravity framework for a panel of 97 developed and developing countries from 2000 to 2018. Our results suggest that an increase in...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013550200
their risk assessments and outcomes to those from a simple methodology that relies on publicly available market data and … market data; (iii) This discrepancy arises due to the reliance on regulatory risk weights in determining required levels of … capital once stress-test losses are taken into account. In particular, the continued reliance on regulatory risk weights in …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013083085
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10000959250
Disparity between control and ownership rights gives rise to the risk of tunneling by the controlling shareholder, and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012759626
's vulnerability to periods of heightened risk and uncertainty. This paper develops a framework to evaluate such vulnerabilities. It … they are affected by domestic and global risk shocks, and apply this framework to 10 OECD economies. These examples …, including a more detailed assessment for the UK, show that a substantial degree of international risk sharing can occur through …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012981097
-averse entrepreneurs discount using a 'hurdle rate' that exceeds the risk-free interest rate. The gap between the two rates increases with …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013324467