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Common and country specific economic uncertainty
Mumtaz, Haroon; Theodoridis, Konstantinos - 2015
We use a factor model with stochastic volatility to decompose the time-varying variance of Macro economic and Financial variables into contributions from country-specific uncertainty and uncertainty common to all countries. We find that the common component plays an important role in driving the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011306276
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Essays on asset pricing with contagion, endogenous growth, and long-run risk
Grüning, Patrick - 2015
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010530710
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The role of economic policy uncertainty in predicting U.S. recessions : a mixed-frequency Markov-switching vector autoregressive approach
Balcilar, Mehmet; Gupta, Rangan; Segnon, Mawuli - 2016
This paper analyzes the performance of the monthly economic policy uncertainty (EPU) index in predicting recessionary regimes of the (quarterly) U.S. GDP. In this regard, the authors apply a mixed-frequency Markov-switching vector autoregressive (MF-MSVAR) model, and compare its in-sample and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011443536
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The role of economic policy uncertainty in predicting U.S. recessions : a mixed-frequency Markov-switching vector autoregressive approach
Balcilar, Mehmet; Gupta, Rangan; Segnon, Mawuli - 2016
This paper analyzes the performance of the monthly economic policy uncertainty (EPU) index in predicting recessionary regimes of the (quarterly) U.S. GDP. In this regard, the authors apply a mixed-frequency Markov-switching vector autoregressive (MF-MS-VAR) model, and compare its in-sample and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011554324
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Modelling events : the short-term economic impact of leaving the EU
Baker, Jessica; Carreras, Oriol; Kirby, Simon; Meaning, Jack - 2016
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011539085
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The macroeconomic impact of financial and uncertainty shocks
Caldara, Dario; Fuentes-Albero, Cristina; Gilchrist, Simon - 2016
The extraordinary events surrounding the Great Recession have cast a considerable doubt on the traditional sources of macroeconomic instability. In their place, economists have singled out financial and uncertainty shocks as potentially important drivers of economic fluctuations. Empirically...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011563004
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Did the introduction of the euro have an impact on inflation uncertainty? : an empirical assessment
Hartmann, Matthias; Herwartz, Helmut - In: Macroeconomic dynamics 18 (2014) 6, pp. 1313-1325
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010467980
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The changing transmission of uncertainty shocks in the US : an empirical analysis
Mumtaz, Haroon; Theodoridis, Konstantinos - 2014
develop an extended Factor Augmented VAR model that simultaneously allows the estimation of a measure of uncertainty and its …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010472799
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Risks in macroeconomic fundamentals and excess bond returns predictability
De Rezende, Rafael B. - 2015 - February 2015
I provide evidence that risks in macroeconomic fundamentals contain valuable information about bond risk premia. I … extract factors from a set of quantile-based risk measures estimated for US macroeconomic variables and document that they … unemployment rate. In addition, factors provide information about bond risk premia variation that is largely unrelated to that …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010478516
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Comment on: "Testing macroprudential stress tests : the risk of regulatory risk weights"
Lucas, Deborah J. - In: Journal of monetary economics 65 (2014), pp. 54-56
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010485269