We propose a novel measure of the ex-ante commodity downside-risk premium (CDP) for each commodity based on a term structure model of commodity futures. Our theory-based CDP, capturing forward-looking information in the futures markets, outperforms well-known characteristics in explaining the...

The inflation rate is normally computed as a weighted average of individual price changes. Alternatively, this rate could be evaluated by comparing average price levels. Unfortunately, this methodology has received limited attention in past research. This study attempts to remedy this situation...