Expectations matter for economic activity. To the extent that they are fundamentally unwarranted, they represent "undue optimism or pessimism" (Pigou, 1927). In this paper, we identify empirically the effect of undue optimism/pessism ("optimism shocks") on economic activity. In a first step, we...

We study the relationship between cyclical job and worker flows at the plant level using a new data set spanning from 1976-2006. We find that procyclical labor demand explains relatively little of procyclical worker flows. Instead, all plants in the employment growth distribution increase their...

This paper examines the effects of changes in uncertainty of household income on the macroeconomy. Households face substantial idiosyncratic income risk that is up to two orders of magnitude larger than total factor productivity uncertainty, very persistent and varies substantially over the...

It is common practice to estimate the volatility-growth link by specifying a standard growth equation such that the variance of the error term appears as an explanatory variable in this growth equation. The variance in turn is modelled by a second equation. Hardly any of existing applications of...

In this paper we use information on the cyclical variation of labor market participation to learn about the aggregate labor supply elasticity. For this purpose, we extend the standard labor market matching model to allow for endogenous participation. A model that is calibrated to replicate the...

We study an exchange economy with overlapping generations of consumers who derive utility from consuming a non-durable commodity and housing. A banking sector offers loans to finance housing. We provide a complete characterization of the equilibrium dynamics which alternates between an expansive...

This paper investigates optimal policy in the presence of anticipated (or news) shocks. We determine the optimal unrestricted and restricted policy response in a general rational expectations model and show that, if shocks are news shocks, the optimal unrestricted control rule under commitment...

Great Recession 2007-2008 has revived interest to quantity aggregates (money and credit) and their role as indicators of financial instability for monetary and macroprudential policy. However, many of the previous empirical studies inspecting indicator properties used univariate methods and did...

Shocks in the financial sector caused the great recession of 2008 and pulled down the real economy. To implement financial dynamics in a stylized DSGE-framework we use behavioral elements in expectations to produce waves of bull and bear cycles in the financial intermediation process, that have...

This paper investigates the accuracy of point and density forecasts of four dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models for output growth, inflation and the interest rate. The model parameters are estimated and forecasts are derived successively from historical U.S. data vintages...