This paper investigates the history of the shift from expert to model based monetary policy analysis at the Dutch Central Bank (DNB) in the postwar period up to the middle of the nineteen-eighties. For reasons that will become clear expert based reasoning at DNB was referred to as normative...

Automobile gasoline demand can be expressed as a multiplicative function of fuel efficiency, mileage per car and car ownership. This implies a linear relationship between the price elasticity of total fuel demand and the price elasticities of fuel efficiency, mileage per car and car ownership....

This paper conducts an empirical analysis of the heterogeneity of recessions in monthly U.S. coincident and leading indicator variables. Univariate Markovswitching models indicate that it is appropriate to allow for two distinct recession regimes, corresponding with ‘mild’ and ‘severe’...

This paper provides a new way of analyzing tenure profiles in wages, by modelling simultaneously the evolution of wages and the distribution of tenures. Starting point is the observation that within-job log wages for an individual can be described by random walk. We develop a theoretical model...

This paper develops a Markov-Switching vector autoregressive model that allows for imperfect synchronization of cyclical regimes in multiple variables, due to phase shifts of a single common cycle. The model has three key features: (i) the amount of phase shift can be different across regimes...

We propose a consistent utility-based framework to jointly explain a household's decisions on purchase incidence, brand choice and purchase quantity. The approach differs from other approaches, currently available in the literature, as it is able to take into account consumption dynamics. In the...

It is conceivable that the "whether to buy" and "how much to buy" decisions in the purchasing process of households are influenced by the inventory process. In this paper we therefore put forward a model for consumption, where we rely on established economic theory. We incorporate this model in...

We demonstrate the possibility of shake-out of firms and emergence of inter-firm heterogeneity along the (socially optimal) dynamic equilibrium path of a competitive industry with free entry and exit, even when there is no uncertainty and all firms are ex ante identical with perfect foresight....

This short paper is a comment on ``Testing for Nonlinear Structure and Chaos in Economic Time Series'' by Catherine Kyrtsou and Apostolos Serletis. We summarize their main results and discuss some of their conclusions concerning the role of outliers and noisy chaos. In particular, we include...

There is an increasing awareness of the potential of nonlinear modeling in regional science, which can partly be explained by the recognition of the limitations of conventional equilibrium models in complex situations and partly by the easy availability and accessibility of sophisticated...