find a higher average forecast accuracy of models that incorporate information on inflation expectations from the ECB's SPF … and Consensus Economics compared to their counterparts that do not. The gains in forecast accuracy from incorporating … inflation expectations are typically not large but significant in some periods. Both short- and long-term expectations provide …

Survey-based expectations are mostly used by monetary authorities for inflation forecasts and evaluation of the … credibility of their inflation fighting policies. It is also an important link in the monetary policy transmission mechanism. This … study examined the predictive ability of business expectations survey (BES) inflation index on movements of inflation as …

breaks in the performance of most simple Phillips curves. Euro area inflation was particularly hard to forecast in the run … in a forecaster's toolkit. We base these conclusions on an extensive forecast evaluation over 1994 - 2018, an … practitioners, we find that: (i) the key type of time variation to consider is an inflation trend; (ii) a simple filter-based output …

The purpose of the paper is to introduce the framework for decomposing the forecast of headline inflation, obtained by … inflation forecast, with relatively good fit of equations for food and domestic oil prices. This model serves as satellite model … core inflation. The model for inflation decomposition is a small structural model, set up in state space framework. Kalman …

indicators help improve upon the simple Autoregressive (AR) model for forecasting HICP core inflation as well total inflation, if …In order to provide medium run forecasts of headline and core HICP inflation for the euro area, we assess the … in inflation in a timely manner. But, from that point of view, the construction of a ''synthetic core'' indicator helps …

This paper examines the relation between variations in perceived inflation uncertainty and bond premia. Using the … average individual uncertainty about inflation forecasts since 1968. We show that this ex-ante measure of inflation … uncertainty differs importantly from measures of disagreement regarding inflation forecasts and other proxies, such as model …

analysis of inflation, as well as for forecasting. In this latter connection, we specifically look into the usefulness of real …In this paper we develop a new model that incorporates inflation expectations and can be used for the structural …-time survey data for inflation projections. We contribute to the literature in two ways. First, our model extracts the inflation …

was under the inflation targeting regime or not. Univariate forecasting models perform well for the fixed exchange rate …This paper studies the forecasting ability of various Phillips curve specifications in a pseudo out-of-sample exercise … for Swedish inflation over the period 1980-2014. Three measures of inflation are considered –– headline inflation …

find a higher average forecast accuracy of models that incorporate information on inflation expectations from the ECB’s SPF … and Consensus Economics compared to their counterparts that do not. The gains in forecast accuracy from incorporating … inflation expectations are typically not large but significant in some periods. Both short- and long-term expectations provide …

find a higher average forecast accuracy of models that incorporate information on inflation expectations from the ECB’s SPF … and Consensus Economics compared to their counterparts that do not. The gains in forecast accuracy from incorporating … inflation expectations are typically not large but significant in some periods. Both short- and long-term expectations provide …