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We consider convertible bonds that contractually stipulate payment standstill, contingent on a market indicator of a sovereign's creditworthiness breaching a distress threshold. This financial innovation limits ex-ante the likelihood of debt crises and imposes ex-post risk sharing between...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012855874
We develop a model of debt sustainability analysis with optimal financing decisions in the presence of macroeconomic … flow dynamics, subject to debt sustainability constraints and endogenous risk and term premia. We optimize both static and … significant effects of optimal financing, and show that the stock-flow tradeoff can be critical for sustainability. We quantify …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012847069
is not uncommon. We propose a scenario analysis for debt sustainability and integrate it with scenario optimization for … sustainability …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013006075
and under various forms of restructuring or rescheduling, and show how to assess debt sustainability. We also develop the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013005957
We express the opinion that sovereign debt sustainability analysis must be augmented by stochastic correlated risk … sustainability and highlight modeling approaches that can be brought to bear on the problem. Results with the fictitiuous, but nor …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012934108
We develop a pricing model for sovereign contingent convertible bonds (S-CoCo) with payment standstills triggered by a sovereign's credit default swap CDS spread. One innovation is the modeling of CDS spread regime switching which is prevalent during crises. Regime switching is modeled as a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012935831
The euro-area sovereign debt crisis is receding. Europe is on a recovery path, growth is broad-based and unemployment is falling. One after the other, countries hit hardest by the crisis are exiting their adjustment programmes. However, debt remains high in most countries and future debt crises...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012899409
We model the super-replication of payoffs linked to a country's GDP as a stochastic linear program on a discrete time and state-space scenario tree to price GDP-linked bonds. As a by-product of the model we obtain a hedging portfolio. Using linear programming duality we compute also the risk...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012924126
We model the super-replication of payoffs linked to a country's GDP as a stochastic linear program on a discrete time and state-space scenario tree to price GDP-linked bonds. As a byproduct of the model, we obtain a hedging portfolio. Using linear programming duality we also compute the risk...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012934030
We develop models for portfolio diversification in the sovereign credit default swap (CDS) markets and show that, despite literature findings that sovereign CDS spreads are affected by global factors, there is sufficient idiosyncratic risk to be diversified away. However, we identify regime...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012968550