We tackle two questions in this paper: In the sovereign debt crisis, what moves the euro area inflation outlook and has … the firm anchoring of medium to long-term inflation expectations been touched? Deriving densities from a new data set on … options on the euro area harmonized index of consumer prices provides us with the full distribution of inflation expectations …

We tackle two questions in this paper: In the sovereign debt crisis, what moves the euro area inflation outlook and has … the firm anchoring of medium to long-term inflation expectations been touched? Deriving densities from a new data set on … options on the euro area harmonized index of consumer prices provides us with the full distribution of inflation expectations …

Did the decline in inflation rates from 2012 to 2015 and the low levels of market-based inflation expectations lead to … de-anchored inflation dynamics in the euro area? This paper is the first time-varying event study to investigate the … reaction of inflation-linked swap (ILS) rates - a market-based measure of inflation expectations - to macroeconomic surprises …

We analyze the degree of anchoring of inflation expectations in the euro area during the post-crisis period, with a …. Using a new estimation technique, we look at tail co-movements between short- and long-term distributions of inflation … expectations, estimated from daily quotes of inflation derivatives. We find that, during 2014, average correlations between short …

inflation differ over time. We show that the impact varies considerably over time, depends on the source of increased liquidity … (M1, M3-M1 or credit) and the underlying state of the economy (asset price boom-bust, business cycle, inflation cycle …

inflation differ over time. We show that the impact varies considerably over time, depends on the source of increased liquidity … (M1, M3-M1 or credit) and the underlying state of the economy (asset price boom-bust, business cycle, inflation cycle …

This paper analyses the distribution of long-term inflation expectations in the euro area using individual density …

In the past five years, the inflation in the euro area has been well below the European Central Bank’s (ECB) aimed … inflation rate of close to but below two percent for achieving its objective of price stabilization in the medium term. The … present analysis shows that expectations of low inflation, rising cyclical unemployment, and external factors such as low …

This paper presents the New Keynesian Phillips Curve (NKPC) -based framework for analysing euro area inflation outlook …. Our NKPC specification, that relies on market- and survey-based inflation expectations, explains well euro area inflation … long-horizons. Overall, the NKPC is a useful tool for monitoring euro area inflation outlook. Thanks to its fast and light …

patterns in economic activity and inflation following oil price shocks in the euro area. In the normal regime, oil price shocks … followed by sizeable and sustained macroeconomic fluctuations, with inflation and economic activity moving in the same … direction as the oil price. The responses of inflation expectations and wage growth point to second-round effects as a potential …