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Es liegt in der Verantwortung von ökonomischen Entscheidungsträgern, Entscheidungen unter Unsicherheit zu treffen. Finanzmarktunsicherheit kann ökonomische Aktivität negativ beeinflussen. In diesem Sinn können Prognosen theoretisch einen ökonomischen Mehrwert liefern. Diese kumulative...
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effects, i.e., it is possible that the structure of the volatility surface changes without a change in the volatility level … state, I show that this superior performance is directly linked to a third volatility factor which is unrelated to the … volatility level. The second chapter studies the price of the smile, which is defined as the premia for individual option risk …
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Recent theoretical developments in exchange rate economics have led to important new insights into the functioning of the foreign exchange market. The simple models of the 1970s, which could not withstand empirical evaluation, have been succeeded by more complex models that draw on theoretical...
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The five chapters of this dissertation deal with the topic of trade under different kinds of uncertainty. In the first chapter, the impact of exchange rate uncertainty on exports of European countries is investigated with a special focus on short-term effects, sectoral differences and the impact...
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