Using the NiGEM model, the authors show that a wage moderation in the “deficit” countries of the euro area –i.e. lowering the annual growth rate of wages by one percentage point over a five year horizon– would improve their current account balances by 0.2 to 0.3 percentage points of GDP....

The Asian financial crisis of 1997-98 was one of the most dramatic economic events of recent times, which raised many questions regarding the appropriate policy response to financial crises. This paper reviews the experience of this crisis, focusing on the overall strategy of crisis management...

This paper seeks to draw lessons from the IMF’s experience in handling financial crises around the globe over the past ten years that are relevant to the challenges faced by countries in Latin America, especially in the wake of the recent crisis in Argentina. Experience suggests that...

In this lecture I document the proliferation of gross international asset and liability positions and discuss some of the consequences for individual countries’ external adjustment processes and for global financial stability. In light of the rapid growth of gross global financial flows and...

The current account balance has long been an established indicator of an economy's external vulnerability. Countries with a current account deficit and an accumulated net debt position are considered vulnerable to a reversal in capital flows (sudden stop) which could lead to a painful adjustment...

This paper examines the impact of sectorial reforms on current account imbalances, with a special focus on the People’s Republic of China (PRC). In particular, we investigate to what extent reforms pertaining to the financial sector, social protection, and healthcare may contribute to a...

This paper examines the problems in establishing currency convertibility- and the optimal timing- in formerly planned economies making the transition to market-oriented systems.

Has the unprecedented financial globalization of recent years changed the behavior of capital flows across countries? Using a newly constructed database of gross and net capital flows since 1980 for a sample of nearly 150 countries, this paper finds that private capital flows are typically...

A push-pull-brake model of capital flows is used to study the effects of fiscal policy changes on private capital flows to emerging Europe during 2000-07. In the model, countercyclical fiscal policy has two opposing effects on capital inflows: (i) a conventional absorptionreducing effect, as a...