series models and distinguishes between different forecast horizons, HICP components and inflation measures. Various … indicate that aggregating forecasts by component does not necessarily help forecast year-on-year inflation twelve months …

breaks in the performance of most simple Phillips curves. Euro area inflation was particularly hard to forecast in the run … in a forecaster's toolkit. We base these conclusions on an extensive forecast evaluation over 1994 - 2018, an … practitioners, we find that: (i) the key type of time variation to consider is an inflation trend; (ii) a simple filter-based output …

affected temporarily. Inflation forecasts made by Eurosystem/ECB staff perform similarly or slightly better than those from our …

This paper develops Area-wide Leading Inflation CyclE (ALICE) indicators for euro area headline and core inflation with … an aim to provide early signals about turning points in the respective inflation cycle. The series included in the two … turning points in the inflation cycle ex post and perform well in a simulated real-time exercise over the period from 2010 to …

; Markov-switching ; Auxiliary information ; Model averaging ; Inflation forecast ; Real-time analysis … predictive power of the output gap for inflation in the euro area. We find evidence of changes in trend growth around the … estimates in real time. Our measures help forecasting inflation over most of our evaluation sample (2001-2010) but fail …

predictive power of the output gap for inflation in the euro area. We find evidence of changes in trend growth around the … estimates in real time. Our measures help forecasting inflation over most of our evaluation sample (2001-2010) but fail …

inflation rates of Turkey and propose a new weighting scheme, the time-varying simple weighting method. Our guiding principle … the exhaustive literature of forecast combinations and apply our newly developed combination method to test for the … prospective credibility of the inflation-targeting regime of the central bank of the Republic of Turkey …

We construct a Bayesian vector autoregressive model with three layers of information: the key drivers of inflation … information is more crucial for accurately forecasting euro area inflation. Our empirical analysis reveals the importance of … including the key drivers of inflation and taking into account the multi-country dimension of the euro area. The results show …

volatility in inflation. Overall, we find that, first, forecast combination helps hedge against bad forecast performance and …The period of extraordinary volatility in euro area headline inflation starting in 2007 raised the question whether … forecast combination methods can be used to hedge against bad forecast performance of single models during such periods and …