In this paper, we address the identification and estimation of insurance models where insurees have private information about their risk and risk aversion. The model includes random damages and allows for several claims, while insurees choose from a finite number of coverages. We show that the...

Star variables, such as potential output and the neutral real interest rate, are fundamental to economic policymaking but challenging to identify due to their latent nature. Buncic, Pagan, and Robinson (2023) highlight the difficulty of identifying star variables within short macroeconomic...

Recent rises in macroeconomic volatility have prompted the introduction of quantile vector autoregression (QVAR) models to forecast macroeconomic risk. This paper provides an extensive evaluation of the predictive performance of QVAR models in a pseudo-out-of-sample experiment spanning 112...

This article provides empirical researchers with an introduction and guide to research designs based on variation in judge and examiner tendencies to administer treatments or other interventions. We review the basic theory behind the research design, outline the assumptions under which the...

We use a rigorous three-stage many-analysts design to assess how different researcher decisions—specifically data cleaning, research design, and the interpretation of a policy question—affect the variation in estimated treatment effects. A total of 146 research teams each completed the same...

Market turnover levels and liquidity changes across various territories significantly influence currency prices, leading to continuous fluctuations. Consequently, traders and investors constantly seek strategies to mitigate exchange rate risks. This study aimed to measure and assess foreign...

It is increasingly common in empirical research to merge data sets containing different units of observation. When the units are not nested, a crosswalk specifying how the units from one data source are allocated to the units of the other is needed. Unfortunately, most crosswalks are ad hoc, a...

Input-output multipliers are typically calculated as point estimates of the Leontief quantity model. From the previous literature, they can also be estimated (and their confidence intervals) directly from establishments'/industries' inputs and outputs data by running an appropriate econometric...

A recent econometric literature shows two distinct paths for identification with shift-share instruments, leveraging either many exogenous shifts or exogenous shares. We present the core logic of both paths and practical takeaways via simple checklists. A variety of empirical settings illustrate...

Many studies of historical persistence find that modern outcomes strongly reflect characteristics of the same places in the distant past. However they rely on data that often exhibit extreme spatial trends and autocorrelation, suggesting that their unusually large t-statistics may be due to...

We forecast recessions in Canada using an autoregressive (AR) probit model. In this model, the presence of the lagged latent variable, which captures the autocorrelation in the recession binary variable, results in an intractable likelihood with a high dimensional integral. Therefore, we employ...

In dieser Studie wird geprüft, ob die Genauigkeit der ersten Schätzung der Bruttowertschöpfung und des Bruttoinlandsprodukts für die Bundesländer erhöht und damit das Ausmaß der nachfolgenden Revisionen reduziert werden kann. Dazu werden alternative ökonometrische Methoden und...

In this paper, I develop a population-based Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm known as parallel tempering to estimate dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models. Parallel tempering approximates the posterior distribution of interest using a family of Markov chains with tempered...

The macroeconomy is a complicated dynamic system with significant uncertainties that make modelling difficult. Consequently, decision-makers consider multiple models that provide different predictions and policy recommendations and then synthesize that information into a policy decision. We use...

We study the falsifiability and identification of Quantal Response Equilibrium (QRE) when each player's utility and error distribution are relaxed to be unknown non-parametric functions. Using variations of players' choices across a series of games, we first show that both the utility function...

This paper summarizes and assesses several of the most popular methods to seasonally adjust weekly data. The industry standard approach, known as X-13ARIMA-SEATS, is suitable only for monthly or quarterly data. Given the increased availability and promise of non-traditional data at higher...

Using China's regional input-output table, the paper constructs indicators of manufacturing servitization, matches manufacturing servitization at the regional level with city data, and uses spatial econometrics to empirically analyze the impact of manufacturing servitization on urban sulfur...

The sport economic literature relies on the city size to proxy for the size of the home market of sports teams. This paper seeks to clarify whether the commonly used definition for home market size in sports economics is actually a valid measure for revenue potential in the modern digital age....