We build a novel macro-finance model that combines a semi-structural macroeconomic module with arbitrage-free yield-curve dynamics. We estimate it for the United States and the euro area using a Bayesian approach and jointly infer the real equilibrium interest rate (r*), trend inflation (π*),...

This paper describes a new parametric volatility surface that is arbitrage free, extremely rich and flexible, and has closed-form expressions for both European option values and local volatilities. Our surface is based on the work of Carr and Pelts, for which we provide a simple derivation and a...

We propose a new methodology for forming arbitrage portfolios that utilizes the information contained in firm characteristics for both abnormal returns and factor loadings. The methodology gives maximal weight to risk-based interpretations of characteristics' predictive power before any...

Estimates of mispricing, such as deviations from no-arbitrage relations, strongly comove across five financial markets. One common component---the arbitrage gap---explains the majority of variability in mispricing estimates for futures, Treasury securities, foreign exchange, and options....

We study the dynamics of cash-and-carry arbitrage using the U.S. crude oil market. Sizable arbitrage-related inventory movements occur at the NYMEX futures contract delivery point but not at other storage locations where, instead, operational factors explain most inventory changes. We add to the...

We argue that post-crisis banking regulations pass through from regulated institutions to unregulated arbitrageurs. We document that, once post-crisis regulations bind post 2014, hedge funds use a larger number of prime brokers and diversify away from GSIB-affiliated prime brokers, and that the...

In a discrete-time setting, we study arbitrage concepts in the presence of convex trading constraints. We show that solvability of portfolio optimization problems is equivalent to absence of arbitrage of the first kind, a condition weaker than classical absence of arbitrage opportunities. We...

A regularization approach to model selection, within a generalized HJM framework, is introduced, which learns the closest arbitrage-free model to a prespecified factor model. This optimization problem is represented as the limit of a one-parameter family of computationally tractable penalized...

In a one price economy, the Fundamental Theorem of Asset Pricing (FTAP) establishes that no-arbitrage is equivalent to the existence of an equivalent martingale measure. Such an equivalent measure can be derived as the normal unit vector of the hyperplane that separates the attainable gain...

Arbitrageurs with a short investment horizon gain from accelerating price discovery by advertising their private information. However, advertising many assets may overload investors' attention, reducing the number of informed traders per asset and slowing price discovery. So arbitrageurs...

An extension of Merton’s (1974) model (EMM) taking account of the firm’s payments and generating a new statistical distribution for the firm value is suggested. In an open log-value space, this distribution evolves from the initially normal to negatively skewed one. When payments are zero or...

We develop a framework for computing the total valuation adjustment (XVA) of a European claim accounting for funding costs, counterparty credit risk, and collateralization. Based on no-arbitrage arguments, we derive backward stochastic differential equations (BSDEs) associated with the...

We examine the consistency of several prominent multifactor models from the empirical asset pricing literature with the Arbitrage Pricing Theory (APT) framework. We follow the APT-related literature and estimate the common factor structure from a rich cross-section (associated with 42 major CAPM...

We analyze a model of anomaly discovery and test its new predictions on both asset prices and arbitrageurs' trading. Consistent with existing evidence, the discovery of an anomaly reduces its magnitude and increases its correlation with other anomalies. Using 99 anomalies, we test the new...

Arbitrageurs with a short investment horizon gain from accelerating price discoveryby advertising their private information. However, advertising many assets mayoverload investors' attention, reducing the number of informed traders per assetand slowing price discovery. So arbitrageurs optimally...

Slow-moving capital cannot fully explain the 2005 and 2008 arbitrage crashes in theconvertible bond market. Faced with depressed convertible bond prices implying negative option values, some investors continued to buy strictly dominated straight bonds from the same issuers. This finding suggests...

I study how arbitrage affects liquidity by analyzing several billion trades in the AmericanDepositary Receipt (ADR) market from 2001 to 2016. Price deviations persist, on average, for 12 minutes, and mainly arise because of price pressure. Impulse response functions estimated at 1-minute...

I study how financial constraints affect liquidity provision and welfare under different structures of the arbitrage industry. In competitive markets, financial constraints may impair arbitrageurs' ability to provide liquidity, thereby reducing other investors' welfare. Instead, in imperfectly...

This paper is an attempt to study fundamentally the valuation of insurance contracts. We start from the observation that insurance contracts are inherently linked to financial markets, be it via interest rates, or – as in hybrid products, equity-linked life insurance and variable annuities –...

We fully characterize the absence of Butterfly arbitrage in the SVI formula for implied total variance proposed by Gatheral in 2004. The main ingredient is an intermediary characterization of the necessary condition for no arbitrage obtained for any model by Fukasawa in 2012 that the inverse...

The real contributions of the MM Proposition are its central assumptions of perfect capital markets and the associated arbitrage argument. In this text, we review the perfect market assumptions and no-arbitrage principle. Then, to explain the evolution of the understanding of arbitrage from a...

This paper applied the multi factor Arbitrage Pricing Theory to explore the relationship between investment performance and selected macroeconomic variables in the Nigerian Capital market. Thus, the general purpose was to test the applicability of the Arbitrage Pricing Theory on investment...

The purpose of this paper is to study the Stochastic Volatility Inspired model (SVI) as implied volatility model: we study the analytic part of the SVI with the arbitrage conditions, we establish the initial guess and the parameter's boundaries. Until recently it was not possible to find...

We use a no-arbitrage term structure model of equity yields computed from the prices of dividend swaps to estimate the yields on hypothetical bonds with cash-flows indexed to the level of US GDP. This provides a novel approach for estimating the possible relative cost of conventional and...

Rational frictionless asset pricing models imply that inflation swap rates and break-even inflation rates with same maturity must be equal. The data, however, suggest a persistent positive difference between these two quantities, which the literature attributes to mispricing of Treasury...

This paper studies the social value of closing price differentials in financial markets. We show that arbitrage gaps (price differentials between markets) exactly correspond to the marginal social value of executing an arbitrage trade. We further show that arbitrage gaps and measures of price...

In contrast to financial arbitrage, which causes prices of economically equivalent transactions to converge in the direction of one price, regulatory arbitrage does not lead to such price convergence. In contrast, regulatory arbitrage tends to produce two different prices for economically...

Investors in the stock market need a valid and accurate model to predict the expected rate of return on their portfolios which necessitate testing many pricing models and determining which model is the most accurate. The problem is that both single-factor and multi-factor capital asset pricing...

We give an algorithm and source code for a cryptoasset statistical arbitrage alpha based on a mean-reversion effect driven by the leading momentum factor in cryptoasset returns discussed in "https://ssrn.com/abstract=3245641" https://ssrn.com/abstract=3245641. Using empirical data, we identify...

Incorporating a progressive or convex income tax into valuation problems raises the question of the appropriate tax rate to use in common valuation formulas. We apply arbitrage theory in a riskless, as well as risky, (multi-period) economy to answer this question. It turns out that the...

I argue that arbitrage mistranslates factor information from ETFs to constituent securities and distorts comovement. The intuition behind this distortion is arbitrageurs trade constituent securities not based on their fundamental exposures but by their portfolio weights, causing securities to...

We show that investment decisions of ETF market participants when trading country ETFs are mostly driven by shocks to U.S. fundamentals, rather than local risks. Investors react only to negative news about local economies. When U.S. economic uncertainty increases, investors switch to Cash ETFs....

The price-amenity arbitrage is a cornerstone of spatial economics, as the response of land and house prices to shifts in the quality of local amenities and public goods is typically used to reveal households' willingness to pay for amenities. With informational, time, and cash constraints,...

In this paper we are concerned with the role of factor strength and pricing errors in asset pricing models, and their implications for identification and estimation of risk premia. We establish an explicit relationship between the pricing errors and the presence of weak factors that are...

The present paper considers a class of financial market with transaction costs and constructs a geometric no-arbitrage analysis frame. Then, this paper arrives at the fact that this financial market is of no-arbitrage if and only if the curvature 2-form of a specific connection is zero....

We develop an Arbitrage Pricing Theory framework extension to study the pricing of squared returns/volatilities. We analyze the interplay between factors at the return level and those in idiosyncratic variances. We confirm the presence of a common idiosyncratic variance factor, but do not find...

We study arbitrage in ETFs holding illiquid corporate bonds, focusing on authorized participants (APs) and their balance sheet space constraints. As unique ETF arbitrageurs, most APs are also bond dealers, and they use their own balance sheet in both roles. We find that bond market illiquidity...

We apply Geometric Arbitrage Theory to obtain results in mathematical finance for credit markets, which do not need stochastic differential geometry in their formulation. We obtain closed form equations involving default intensities and loss given defaults characterizing the...

We show theoretically and empirically that no-arbitrage pricing magnifies the importance of noise when replication requires offsetting positions with similar fundamentals. This occurs because fundamentals are hedged, while any errors in the underlying asset prices are levered and amplified....

We empirically evaluate the predictions of the mispricing hypothesis with limits-to-arbitrage suggested by Shleifer and Vishny (1997) and the q-theory with investment frictions proposed by Li and Zhang (2010) on the negative relation between asset growth and average stock returns. We conduct...