As a graduate student at the Center for Adaptive Behavior and Cognition (ABC), I learned that simple models can beat more complex models, particularly in out-of-sample accuracy. This finding has been validated in my career since then. But I did observe some situations where complex models were...

From the late 1970s into the early 1990s, U.S. federal law mandated the executive branch to prepare annual analytical documents known as Arms Control Impact Statements (ACIS). These instruments – obviously patterned after the Environmental Impact Statements (EIS), which had been inaugurated...

This article takes stock of the ongoing negotiations on arms control and regional security in the context of the multilateral peace talks on the Middle East. It examines the background conditions that made these negotiations possible and the problem of designing the right sequence within which...

The paper examines the economic crisis in the Soviet Union and in this context analyses why arms control was so important from the Soviet point of view. It further discusses the organic relationship between disarmament and development, and rounds of with a case for conversion of Soviet military...

No abstract avaLandmine contamination affects the lives of millions in many conflict-ridden countries long after the cessation of hostilities. Yet, little research exists on its impact on post-conflict recovery. In this study, we explore the economic consequences of landmine clearance in...

The administration of President Donald J. Trump has consistently used fear of China to undermine nearly five decades of bipartisan consensus on US–Russian nuclear arms control. The negative consequences of these actions may last far beyond the Trump presidency. If generations of agreement...

Landmine contamination affects the lives of millions in many conflict-ridden countries long after the cessation of hostilities. Yet, little research exists on its impact on post-conflict recovery. In this study, we explore the economic consequences of landmine clearance in Mozambique, the only...

The paper analyses the determinants of ratification of international treaties concerning arms control. It theorizes that the ratification of an arms control treaty serves as a signal of a country's intention to avoid arms races and wars. I argue that fast growing countries have a special...

Natural law principles played an important role in the early development of international legal theory, but were subsequently displaced by positivist ideals. Within the past half-century, fundamental changes in international society have revealed the limitations of a purely positivist approach...

Reviews the prominent works in recent years on the relative merits of total nuclear disarmament, and argue that while nuclear weapons have not become irrelevant, they have become less relevant as a result of the processes of globalization

The emergence of anti-democratic movements is a central puzzle to social science. We study a novel and rich dataset covering Swedish municipalities during the interwar years and find a strong link between the presence of a military garrison and the emergence of fascist parties. We interpret...

Excessive military spendingreduces the available financial reserves for health,education, and other human needs. For poor countries, it increases poverty, unemployment, and destitution.It also strengthens dictatorial tendencies in politics and acts against democratic values. If we want to...

The article considers initiatives to regulate disarmament focusing on an indirect component of peace. Taking chosen public international law conventions on disarmament into account, it explores ways to deal with and prevent the risk of adverse impact of business activities on human rights. It...

Russia currently has the world's third largest fleet of nuclear power plants with 33 reactors in operation. To supply the country's growing energy demand, Russia plans to double its nuclear energy output by 2035 with ten reactors currently under construction and a number of existing ones being...

This Paper "The Economic Shock to Afghanistan Caused by Aid Reduction and Troops Withdrawal" is the first part of my M.Sc. thesis submitted to the Management and Economics Faculty of the Ruhr-University Bochum, which aims to analyze, quantify and describe the economic shock caused by the...

This report explores the DDR programme in South Sudan; in particular how it has evolved, what the major challenges have been to its implementation and, finally, what can realistically be expected from renewed efforts to disarm and reintegrate fighters vis-à-vis security imperatives on the...

Somalia has been plagued by instability for most of its 45-year history. After more than fourteen failed attempts at peace to build a new central government, the current (2002-2005) National Reconciliation and Peace Process, Somalia is still fractured. Multiple militias make the capital,...

Paper prepared for the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), Human Development Report 1992. The reduction in tension between the superpowers offers the opportunity to release funds, a peace dividend that could be put to constructive use. This paper considers whether this opportunity, as...

Introduction : the political economy of engagement -- The political economy of North Korea : the paradigmatic hard target -- North Korea's external economic relations -- The dilemmas of humanitarian assistance : the political economy of food -- The microeconomics of engagement -- Negotiating on...

The National Disarmament, Demobilization and Reintegration Program (NDDRP) in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) was implemented over a period of seven years (2004- 2011) with the World Bank's support and funding. The NDDRP had three objectives: 1) disarmament of all combatants willing...

This note describes the Disarmament and Demobilization (D&D) of combatants from all warring parties in January 2002, which marked the official end of the civil war in Sierra Leone. D&D was part of a larger disarmament, demobilization, and reintegration (DDR) program, implemented by the...

Soon after beginning operations, the Federal Reserve established a nationwide network for collecting information about the economy. In 1919, the Fed began tabulating data by about retail sales, which it viewed as a fundamental measure of consumption. From 1920 until 1929, the Federal Reserve...

Soon after beginning operations, the Federal Reserve established a nationwide network for collecting information about the economy. In 1919, the Fed began tabulating data by about retail sales, which it viewed as a fundamental measure of consumption. From 1920 until 1929, the Federal Reserve...

The alarm raised by the jump in subprime mortgage defaults has deflected attention away from a serious problem that afflicts many homeowners with subprime and prime mortgages alike: a significant share of all outstanding mortgages have adjustable interest rates, and the majority of these will...

Denmark should use its unique expertise on radiation protection, biosafety/biosecurity and disease surveillance and develop an international control system for nuclear and biological materials in order to help smaller states prevent dangerous materials from falling into the wrong hands. A new...

This volume presents a range of views on the current state of global nuclear disarmament from eminent scholars from India, Israel and France. Chapters present and analyse the relationships between India, Pakistan and the USA, Russia and the USA, the position of the EU and of Israel

This volume presents a range of views on the current state of global nuclear disarmament from eminent scholars from India, Israel and France. Chapters present and analyse the relationships between India, Pakistan and the USA, Russia and the USA, the position of the EU and of Israel. The...