This paper studies the consumption response to an increase in the domestic value of foreign currency household debt during a large depreciation. We use detailed consumption survey data that follows households for four years around Hungary's 2008 currency crisis. We find that, relative to similar...

To update a famous old statistic: a political leader in a developing country is almost twice as likely to lose office in the 6 months following a currency crash as otherwise. This difference, which is highly significant statistically, holds regardless whether the devaluation takes place in the...

John Mills is one of Britain’s most stimulating economic thinkers. Unusually, he has many decades of practical business experience and is also more commonly associated with the political left than the right. It is therefore an immense pleasure to engage with him on some of the most important...

This paper deals with the anatomy of devaluation in Latin America. In an effort to understand the economics surrounding the causes and consequences of exchange rate crises, eighteen devaluation episodes that took place between 1962 and 1982 are investigated in detail. The paper focuses on: (1)...

This paper studies the behavior of inflation after nine large post-1990 contractionary devaluations. A salient feature of the data is that inflation is low relative to the rate of devaluation. We argue that distribution costs and substitution away from imports to lower quality local goods can...

A developing country often pegs its exchange rate to a single currency, such as the U.S. dollar, even though it faces a higher inflation rate than the country to which it is pegged. As a consequence, it experiences real exchange-rate misalignments and a series of easily-anticipated devaluations....

Exchange rates and international prices are endogenous – exchange rates influence export prices directly through the costs of intermediate imports, but import price inflation feeds back into the exchange rates indirectly through monetary policy. This paper shows how to quantify the causal...

In this paper we argue that the primary force behind the large drop in real exchange rates that occurs after large devaluations is the slow adjustment in the price of nontradable goods and services. Our empirical analysis uses data from five large devaluation episodes: Argentina (2001), Brazil...

Recent macroeconomic models of developing countries have emphasized the possibility of contactionary devaluations, stressing that domestic aggregate demand is likely to be reduced by the devaluations while aggregate supply may respond only slowly to the change in relative prices brought about by...

The collapse of a fixed exchange rate is typically marked by a sudden balance-of-payments crisis in which"speculators" fleeing from the domestic currency acquire a large portion of the central bank's foreign exchange holdings.Faced with such an attack, the central bank often withdraws...

The foreign exchange risk premium in an exchange rate target zone regime with devaluation/realignment risks is derived. In contrast to previous literature, the exchange rate's heteroscedasticity within the bard, as well as a separate devaluation/realignment risk, is taken into account. The risk...

A key question about the Great Depression is whether expansionary monetary policy in the United States would have led to a loss of confidence in the U. S. commitment to the gold standard. This paper uses the $1 billion expansionary open market operation undertaken in the spring of 1932 as a...

This paper shows that the risk of devaluation can be an important factor accounting for the stylized facts of exchange-rate-based stabilizations. This conclusion follows from studying the quantitative implications of a two-sector equilibrium business cycle model of a small open economy...

Large devaluations are generally associated with large declines in real exchange rates. We develop a model which embodies two complementary forces that account for the large declines in the real exchange rate that occur in the aftermath of large devaluations. The first force is sticky...

This paper studies the consumption response to an increase in the domestic value of foreign currency household debt during a large depreciation. We use detailed consumption survey data that follows households for four years around Hungary's 2008 currency crisis. We find that, relative to similar...

We investigate the long-term effect of domestic currency depreciation on the external debt for a panel of 41 emerging economies over the years 1999-2019. Using heterogenous panel cointegration methods, we find that domestic currency depreciation leads to an increase in external debt to GDP ratio...

Recently a number of authors have criticized the role of devaluations in traditional stabilization programs. It has been argued that, contrary to the traditional view, devaluations are contractionary, and generate a decline in aggregate output. In spite of the renewed theoretical interest in the...

What happens if a country devalues its currency? Standard macroeconomic theory would argue for expansionary effects, while recent theoretical contributions and the empirical evidence do not appear overly supportive. Devaluations have been mostly used by developing countries, but even...

This paper documents negative cumulative abnormal returns (CARs) to five exchange rate devaluations in Venezuela within the context of stiff exchange controls and large black-market premiums, using daily stock prices for 110 multinational corporations with Venezuelan subsidiaries. The results...

This paper studies the mechanism of international transmission of exchange rate shocks within a 3-country Center-Periphery model, providing a choice-theoretic framework for the policy analysis and empirical assessment of competitive devaluations. If relative prices and terms of trade exhibit...

This paper explores the distributional implications of a fiscal devaluation acquired through a shift from labor to consumption taxes in an open-economy Heterogeneous Agents New Keynesian model with incomplete markets and uninsurable income risk. A permanent fiscal devaluation perfectly mimicking...

The consequences of large depreciations on economic activity depend on the relative strength of the contractionary balance sheet and expansionary expenditure switching effects. However, the two operate over different time horizons: the balance sheet effect hits almost immediately, while...

We study the macroeconomic effects of internal devaluations undertaken by a periphery of countries belonging to a monetary union. We find that internal devaluations have large and positive output effects in the long run. Through an expectations channel, most of these effects carry over to the...

This paper aims to study the effect of currency depreciation on economic growth in Nigeria. The impetus for this study stems from the paradoxical observation that, although Nigeria cannot operate a fixed exchange rate system (currency devaluation) because of its low reserves. But can still...

This master thesis aims to examine an empirical investigation of the impact of Azerbaijan national currency devaluation on the banking sector of Azerbaijan. We will identify how currency devaluation affects the performance of the banks in Azerbaijan. In recent decades, several developing...

To overcome the Euro Area crisis, periphery countries were pushed to cut labour costs. However, internal devaluation (ID) is known to improve exports only partially. This opens the question as to why ID was so central in managing the crisis. We argue that ID, beyond its purely economic impact,...

This paper estimates the effect of Chinese Yuan devaluation on the trade balance of China. For that a regression equation is developed in which domestic income, foreign income, domestic money supply, foreign money supply and real effective exchange rate are used as explanatory variable with...

This working paper empirically and theoretically analyzes the exchange rate's role in Mexico's development for the period 2004-19. We test the hypothesis of the re(emergence) of the balance sheet effect due to an increase in external debt in the nonfinancial corporate sector; higher foreign debt...

Fiscal devaluation works as an alternative instrument to monetary de- valuation, helping countries to regain competitiveness in a monetary union. Focusing on a closed economy, this paper analyzes its effects in a dynamic framework. In the case of an increasing relative love for variety, fiscal...

In the aftermath of large devaluations, prices of tradable goods/lower-priced varieties increase significantly more than the prices of nontradables/higher-priced varieties. These relative price changes may lead to inflation inequality when household consumption baskets are different across the...

This paper estimates the effect of Chinese Yuan devaluation on the trade balance of China. For that a regression equation is developed in which domestic income, foreign income, domestic money supply, foreign money supply and real effective exchange rate are used as explanatory variable with...

Devaluation of currency has been stipulated and utilized increasingly as a stabilization device in developing countries, as part of International Monetary Fund (IMF) mainstream adjustment programs. The policy measure of currency devaluation has aimed to make export products more competitive and...

Totaling in excess of $100 billion dollars in transactions annually, debt buybacks allow a company to repurchase bonds from investors, rewriting bargains and stripping away creditor control rights in the process. This Article shows that regulation systematically under-protects bondholders in the...