In the dual risk model, while the ultimate ruin probability has an exact and straightforward formula, the mathematics becomes significantly more complex when considering a finite time horizon, and the literature on this topic is scarce. As a result, there is a need for numerical approximations....

This paper investigates the role of proportional reinsurance as a practical and flexible tool for managing demographic risk in life insurance, with a focus on its impact on both the Solvency Capital Requirement (SCR) and expected profitability. While much of the existing literature focuses on...

This paper aims to develop optional semimartingale methods in risk theory to allow for a larger class of risk models. Optional semimartingales are left-continuous with right-limit stochastic processes defined on a probability space where the usual conditions - completeness and right-continuity...

Longevity risk affecting older adults can be transferred to the insurance market by purchasing a lifetime annuity. Special-rate life annuities, which are priced, among other factors, on the basis of health and lifestyle factors, go beyond traditional considerations of age and sex by using...

This study introduces a new family of distributions (FoD) called type I heavy-tailed odd Burr III-G (TI-HT-OBIII-G) distribution. Several statistical properties of the family are derived along with actuarial risk measures. The maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) approach is adopted in the...

The study of mortality is an ever-active field of research, and new methods or combinations of methods are constantly being developed. In the actuarial domain, the study of phenomena disrupting mortality and leading to excess mortality, as in the case of COVID-19, is of great interest....

The Danish fire loss dataset records commercial fire losses under three insurance coverages: building, contents, and profits. Existing research has primarily focused on the heavy-tail behaviour of the losses but ignored the relationship among different insurance coverages. In this paper, we aim...

We leverage telematics data on driving behavior variables to assess driver risk and predict future insurance claims in a case study utilising a representative telematics sample. In the study, we aim to categorise drivers according to their driving habits and establish premiums that accurately...

This paper studies properties and applications related to the mixture of the class of distributions built by the Lehmann's alternative (also referred to in the statistical literature as max-stable or exponentiated distribution) of the form [𝐺(·)]𝜆, where 𝜆0 and 𝐺(·) is a continuous...

We obtain the upper and lower bounds for the ruin probability in the Sparre-Andersen model. These bounds are established under various conditions: when the adjustment coefficient exists, when it does not exist, and when the interarrival distribution belongs to certain aging classes....

This study proposes a new discrete distribution in the mixed Poisson paradigm to obtain a distribution that provides a better fit to skewed and dispersed count observation with excess zero. The cubic transmutation map is used to extend the exponential distribution, and the obtained continuous...

Modelling claim frequency and claim severity are topics of great interest in property-casualty insurance for supporting underwriting, ratemaking, and reserving actuarial decisions. Standard Generalized Linear Models (GLM) frequency-severity models assume a linear relationship between a function...

This paper estimates pure–exporter premium, which captures the differences between pure exporters and general exporters in various firm characteristics. The data are Thailand’s firm-level data from three rounds of the industrial census in 2007, 2012, and 2017. The analysis finds positive...

This paper introduces and examines an intriguing puzzle arising from the market’s persistent tendency to overestimate the trajectory of spot interest rates resulting in lucrative cumulative long-term returns for net zero investments. We introduce a new metric called the “Hairy” premium to...

In this short note we discuss duration effects on the consistency of mean parameter and dispersion parameter estimators in exponential dispersion families (EDFs). Particular focus is on the situation corresponding to the standard generalised linear model assumptions where both the mean and...

To manage market and longevity risk, Dr. Pfau shows how the use of life insurance and income annuities, as fixed income assets in a portfolio, can better hedge a retiree’s retirement-income needs as a portfolio volatility reduction tool

While the topics of risk aversion and utility theory have been discussed extensively in the academic literature on risk and insurance, this literature does not include a pedagogical discussion that is widely accessible for classroom use. This paper provides a practical introduction to risk...

The Capitation Payment Unit (CPU) fnancing mechanism constitutes more than 70% of health spending in Colombia, with a budget allocation of close to 60 trillion Colombian pesos for the year 2022 (approximately 15.7 billion US dollars). This article estimates actuarially, using modern techniques,...

This paper investigates an optimal reinsurance policy using a risk model with dependent claim and insurance premium by assuming that the insurance premium is random. Their dependence structure is modeled using Sarmanov’s bivariate exponential distribution and the Farlie–Gumbel–Morgenstern...

This tutorial gives an overview of SHAP (SHapley Additive exPlanation), one of the most commonly used techniques for examining a black-box machine learning (ML) model. Besides providing the necessary game theoretic background, we show how typical SHAP analyses are performed and used to gain...