Search Results - subject_exact:"Adaptive Erwartungsbildung"

Informational differences, adaptive learning, and inflation forecast bias

Chen, Qiang; Yin, Zechen - 2025

This work highlights a previously overlooked factor that contributes to bias in private inflation forecasts-ignorance of confidential monetary rules. Additionally, it examines how this ignorance indirectly affects policy rate settings. The model proposed reconciles biases in two key forecast...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015472808

Investor memory

Gödker, Katrin; Jiao, Peiran; Smeets, Paul - 2025

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015458791

Memory moves markets

Charles, Constantin - 2025

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015458792

Earnings extrapolation and predictable stock market returns

Guo, Hongye - 2025

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015458794

Survey expectations, adaptive learning and inflation dynamics

Rychalovska, Yuliya; Slobodyan, Sergey; Wouters, Rafael - 2024

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10014545353

DSGE Model Forecasting : Rational Expectations vs. Adaptive Learning

Warne, Anders - 2023

This paper compares within-sample and out-of-sample fit of a DSGE model with rational expectations to a model with adaptive learning. The Galí, Smets and Wouters model is the chosen laboratory using quarterly real-time euro area data vintages, covering 2001Q1–2019Q4. The adaptive learning...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10014258211

Recidivism and Adaptive Expectation

Ramanambonona, Ambinintsoa - 2023

The article argues that adaptive expectations play a role in deterrence and punishment by suggesting that offenders who have experienced the punishment before may expect a hight level of punishment if caught again. Therefore, punishing repeat offenders more severely than first-time offenders can...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10014348027

Adaptive Learning in Nonlinear Models

Higgins, Richard - 2023

Two separate branches of research have shown the empirical benefits of nonlinearities in macroeconomic models and bounded rationality, respectively. This paper bridges these literatures by developing a methodology for estimating DSGE models when expectations are formed by adaptive learning...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10014353861

A short history in defence of adaptive learning

Eusepi, Stefano; Preston, Bruce - 2023

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10014432552

Expectations and stock market in Nepal

Sedhain, Roshan; Shijin, S. - 2023

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10014433467

Professional survey forecasts and expectations in DSGE models

Rychalovska, Yuliya; Slobodyan, Sergey; Wouters, Rafael - 2023

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10014433498

Senior bank loan officers' expectations for loan demand : a note

Anastasiou, Dimitris; Khurramovich, Khudoykulov Khurshid; … - 2023

We employ senior bank loan officers' responses regarding actual and expected loan demand from enterprises linking successive surveys to determine the dominant expectation formation mechanism that best describes European senior bank loan officers' expectations. Our findings suggest that the...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10014466505

Misaligned expectations and bond term premium measures

Vázquez, Jesús - 2025

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015435423

Adaptive agents may be smarter than you think : unbiasedness in adaptive expectations

Palestrini, A.; Delli Gatti, Domenico; Gallegati, Mauro; … - 2025

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015610079

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Adaptive agents may be smarter than you think : unbiasedness in adaptive expectations

Palestrini, Antonio; Delli Gatti, Domenico; Gallegati, Mauro - 2021

Book / Working Paper

Adaptive Agents May Be Smarter than You Think : Unbiasedness in Adaptive Expectations

Palestrini, Antonio; Gallegati, Mauro; Delli Gatti, Domenico - 2021

Book / Working Paper

Survey expectations, learning and inflation dynamics

Rychalovska, Yuliya; Slobodyan, Sergey; Wouters, Rafael - 2025

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015583490

Expectations, stagnation, and fiscal policy : a nonlinear analysis

Evans, George W.; Honkapohja, Seppo; Mitra, Kaushik - 2022

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10013387630

The return expectations of public pension funds

Andonov, Aleksandar; Rauh, Joshua - 2022

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10013350123

Stock return extrapolation, option prices, and variance risk premium

Atmaz, Adem - 2022

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10012878993

Limits on Regret as a Tool for Incentive Design

Araújo, Felipe Augusto de; Imas, Alex; Wilson, Alistair J. - 2024

We demonstrate the pitfalls when extrapolating behavioral findings across different contexts and decision environments. We focus on regret theory and the use of "regret lotteries" for motivating behavior change. Here, findings from one-shot settings have been used to promote regret as a tool to...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10014635722

Initial beliefs uncertainty and information weighting in the estimation of models with adaptive learning

Galimberti, Jaqueson K. - 2021

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10012601834

Adaptive Learning, Persistence, and Optimal Monetary Policy

Gaspar, Vítor; Smets, Frank; Vestin, David - 2021

We show that, when private sector expectations are determined in line with adaptive learning, optimal policy responds persistently to cost-push shocks. The optimal response is stronger and more persistent, the higher is the initial level of perceived inflation persistence by the private sector....

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10013317572

Performance of monetary policy with internal Central Bank forecasting

Honkapohja, Seppo - 2002

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10013434449

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Performance of Monetary Policy with Internal Central Bank Forecasting

Honkapohja, Seppo; Mitra, Kaushik - 2021

Book / Working Paper

Performance of Monetary Policy with Internal Central Bank Forecasting

Honkapohja, Seppo - 2007

Book / Working Paper

Initial beliefs uncertainty

Galimberti, Jaqueson K. - 2021

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10012632113

Precautionary saving and un-anchored expectations

Grimaud, Alex - 2021

This paper investigates monetary policy in a heterogeneous agent new Keynesian (HANK) model where agents face idiosyncratic income risk and use adaptive learning in order to form their expectations. Households experience different histories and observe different idiosyncratic variables. This...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10012658759

Bayesian forecasting of US recessions using new Keynesian models with heterogeneous expectations

Elias, Christopher J. - 2023

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10014303846

Econometric models of inflation in Brazil : structuralists, monetarists and rational expectations approachs, 1995-2017

Carvalho, Andre Cutrim; Carvalho, David Ferreira - 2019

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10012207276

An approximation of the distribution of learning estimates in macroeconomic models

Galimberti, Jaqueson K. - 2019

Adaptive learning under constant-gain allows persistent deviations of beliefs from equilibrium so as to more realistically reflect agents' attempt of tracking the continuous evolution of the economy. A characterization of these beliefs is therefore paramount to a proper understanding of the role...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10011997475

Endogenously (non-)Ricardian beliefs

Branch, William A.; Gasteiger, Emanuel - 2019

This paper develops a theory of endogenously (non-)Ricardian beliefs. That is, whether Ricardian Equivalence holds in an equilibrium depends on endogenous private sector beliefs. The novelty here is a restricted perceptions viewpoint: in complex forecasting environments, agents forecast...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10011988962

Adaptive learning with heterogeneous expectations in an estimated medium-scale New Keynesian model

Elias, Christopher J. - 2022

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10013328026

Learning with unobserved regimes

Cone, Thomas E. - 2022

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10013443877

A volatility model based on adaptive expectations : an improvement on the rational expectations model

Yao, Yuan; Zhao, Yang; Li, Yan - 2022

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10013431245

Bayesian estimation of a small-scale New Keynesian model with heterogeneous expectations

Elias, Christopher J. - 2022

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10013270222

Growth, expectations and tariffs

Honkapohja, Seppo; Turunen-Red, Arja H.; Woodland, Alan D. - 2016

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10011666000

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Growth, Expectations and Tariffs

Honkapohja, Seppo - 2018

Book / Working Paper

Growth, Expectations and Tariffs

Honkapohja, Seppo - 2011

Book / Working Paper

Growth, Expectations, and Tariffs

Honkapohja, Seppo - 2011

Book / Working Paper

Adaptive Expectations and Commodity Risk Premia

Bianchi, Daniele - 2018

We investigate the determinants of the commodity (ex-ante) risk premia for different maturities through the lens of a model of adaptive learning in which expected future spot prices are revised based on past prediction errors and changes in economic fundamentals. The main results show that risk...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10012936088

Asymmetric attention

Kohlhas, Alexandre N.; Walther, Ansgar - 2021

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10012614345

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Asymmetric Attention

Kohlhas, Alexandre - 2018

Book / Working Paper

Rethinking the power of forward guidance : lessons from Japan

Gertler, Mark - 2017

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10011763913

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Rethinking the power of forward guidance : lessons from Japan

Gertler, Mark - 2017

Book / Working Paper

Rethinking the power of forward guidance : lessons from Japan

Gertler, Mark - 2017

Book / Working Paper

Rethinking the Power of Forward Guidance : Lessons from Japan

Gertler, Mark - 2017

Book / Working Paper

Rethinking the Power of Forward Guidance : Lessons from Japan

Gertler, Mark - 2017

Book / Working Paper

Fiscal Policy and Learning

Mitra, Kaushik - 2017

Using the standard real business cycle model with lump-sum taxes, we analyze the impact of fiscal policy when agents form expectations using adaptive learning rather than rational expectations (RE). The output multipliers for government purchases are significantly higher under learning, and fall...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10012941780

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Fiscal Policy and Learning

Mitra, Kaushik - 2012

Book / Working Paper

Testing the properties of financial analysts' predictions of future spot exchange rates (example of CZK/EUR)

Mandel, Martin; Vejmělek, Jan - 2021

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10012601894

Adaptive expectations and commodity risk premiums

Bianchi, Daniele - 2021

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10012666934

Adaptive learning with term structure information

Vázquez, Jesús; Aguilar, Pablo - 2021

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10012694439

When a boundedly rational monopolist meets consumers with reference dependent preferences

Tramontana, Fabio - 2021

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10012600843

Information and expectations in policy-making : Friedman’s changing approaches to macroeconomic dynamics

Rivot, Sylvie - 2021

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10012886276

Adaptive learning and macroeconomic policy in DSGE models

Özden, Tolga - 2021

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10012543564

Expectations and investment

Gennaioli, Nicola; Ma, Yueran; Shleifer, Andrei - 2016

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10011977043

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Expectations and investment

Gennaioli, Nicola; Ma, Yueran; Shleifer, Andrei - 2016

Book / Working Paper

Expectations and Investment

Gennaioli, Nicola - 2016

Book / Working Paper

Expectations and Investment

Gennaioli, Nicola - 2015

Book / Working Paper

Expectations and Investment

Gennaioli, Nicola - 2015

Book / Working Paper

Expectations and the Stability Problem for Optimal Monetary Policies

Honkapohja, Seppo - 2016

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10012991311

Extrapolation and bubbles

Barberis, Nicholas; Greenwood, Robin; Jin, Lawrence; … - 2018

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10011982207

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Extrapolation and bubbles

Barberis, Nicholas; Greenwood, Robin; Jin, Lawrence; … - 2016

Book / Working Paper

Extrapolation and Bubbles

Barberis, Nicholas - 2016

Book / Working Paper

Extrapolation and Bubbles

Barberis, Nicholas - 2016

Book / Working Paper

Expectations, stagnation and fiscal policy

Evans, George W.; Honkapohja, Seppo; Mitra, Kaushik - 2016

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10011524414

Show 3 more versions 3

Expectations, stagnation and fiscal policy

Evans, George W.; Honkapohja, Seppo; Mitra, Kaushik - 2016

Book / Working Paper

Expectations, stagnation and fiscal policy

Evans, George W.; Honkapohja, Seppo; Mitra, Kaushik - 2016

Book / Working Paper

Expectations, Stagnation and Fiscal Policy

Evans, George W. - 2016

Book / Working Paper

Index of Adaptability in Q3 2016

Tsukhlo, Sergey - 2016

Final estimate given by the Index of Adaptability for Q3 2016 has conﬁrmed the increased level of Russian industry adaptability to the crisis of 2014–2016. The indicator has conclusively registered its all-time maximum at 74% for the entire period of monitoring 1994–2016 (Fig. 1). Review...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10012978692

On the initialization of adaptive learning in macroeconomic models

Berardi, Michele; Galimberti, Jaqueson K. - 2017

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10011817478

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On the initialization of adaptive learning in macroeconomic models

Berardi, Michele; Galimberti, Jaqueson K. - 2016

Book / Working Paper

Adaptive learning and labour market dynamics

Di Pace, Federico; Mitra, Kaushik; Zhang, Shoujian - 2016

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10011581581

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