This paper used cross-sectional aggregation as the inspiration for a model with long-range dependence that arises in actual data. One of the advantages of our model is that it is less brittle than fractionally integrated processes. In particular, we showed that the antipersistent phenomenon is...

In this paper, we show that a concept of aggregation can hold in large network games with linear best replies. Breaking up large networks into smaller subnetworks, which can be replaced by representative players, leads to a coarse-grained description of strategic interactions. This method of...

We propose a novel copula approach to producing density forecasts of economic aggregates combining models using disaggregate data. Our copula approach is more flexible compared to existing techniques, because it is applicable to any econometric model that produces density forecasts. We construct...

We provide key insights on expectation formation based on the Bloomberg economic survey: around two thirds of professional forecasters provide GDP forecasts that are temporally consistent, meaning that quarterly forecasts add up to the annual. Temporally consistent forecasts are not more...

This article discusses the aggregation problem and its implications for ecological economics. The aggregation problem consists of a simple dilemma: when adding heterogeneous phenomena together, the observer must choose the unit of analysis. The dilemma is that this choice affects the resulting...

The analysis of future energy systems with increasing shares of renewable energy production poses various challenges to models used in the field of energy system analysis. Aggregation is one solution to reduce the computation time of large optimization problems, especially for optimization...

We present a model of the time-allocation decision of spouses in order to study the role of heterogeneity in preferences and wages for couples' labor supply. Spouses differ in their tastes for market consumption and non-market goods and activities, and also in their offered or earned wages. They...

The modern Condorcet jury theorem states that under weak conditions, when voters have common interests, elections will aggregate information when the population is large, in any equilibrium. Here, we study the performance of large elections with population uncertainty. We find that the modern...

Besides temporal and spatial aggregation issues in the analysis of asymmetric response of retail gasoline prices, previous studies have also largely ignored parameter heterogeneity across fuel stations. This paper addresses the aggregation issues and the parameter homogeneity assumption by...

The nexus between debt and inequality has attracted considerable scholarly attention in the wake of the global financial crisis. One prominent candidate to explain the striking co-evolution of income inequality and private debt in this period has been the theory of upward-looking consumption...

Econometric studies for global heating have typically used regional or global temperature averages to study its long memory properties. One typical explanation behind the long memory properties of temperature averages is cross-sectional aggregation. Nonetheless, formal analysis regarding the...

This paper used cross-sectional aggregation as the inspiration for a model with long-range dependence that arises in actual data. One of the advantages of our model is that it is less brittle than fractionally integrated processes. In particular, we showed that the antipersistent phenomenon is...

Proper measurement and aggregation of trade costs is of paramount importance for sound academic and policy analysis of the determinants - particularly those of policy - of economic outcomes. The international trade profession has witnessed significant new developments, both on the theoretical...

Aggregate measures of real GDP growth obtained from the GDP by Industry Accounts often differ from the featured measure of real GDP growth obtained from the National Income and Product Accounts (NIPAs). We find that differences in source data account for most of the difference in aggregate real...

Explanations of procyclical productivity play a key role in a variety of business-cycle models. Most of these models, however, explain this procyclicality within a representative-firm paradigm. This procedure is misleading. We decompose aggregate productivity changes into several terms, each of...

This paper presents an (S,s) model for automobile consumption and estimates it using a data set of US households. The model allows for unobserved heterogeneity in both the target level and the band width, takes into account the possibility of a zero desired level, constrains the band to be non...

Standard models of aggregate demand treat money and credit asymmetrically; money is given a special status, while loans, bonds, and other debt instruments are lumped together in a "bond market" and suppressed by Walras' Law. This makes bank liabilities central to the monetary transmission...

How can low consumer spending cause an inefficient recession or recovery? We propose a real theory of aggregate demand shortages that does not rely on nominal rigidities. In our theory, an economy can be demand constrained when, i) productivity in the consumption goods sector can be improved or...

This paper attempts to reconcile the contradictory findings in the debate over school resources and school effectiveness by highlighting the role of aggregation in the presence of omitted variables bias. While data aggregation for well-specified linear models yields unbiased parameter estimates,...

A forecast produced by an econometric model is a weighted aggregate of predetermined variables in the model. In many models the number of predetermined variables used is very large, often exceeding the number of observations. A method is proposed in this paper for testing an econometric model as...

The basic premise of this paper is that understanding aggregate dynamics requires considering that agents are heterogeneous and that they do not adjust continuously to the shocks they perceive. We provide a general characterization of lumpy behavior at the microeconomic level in terms of an...

We present a picture of the labor market, one with large flows of jobs and workers, and matching. We develop a consistent approach to the interaction among those flows and the stocks of unemployed workers and vacant jobs, and to the determination of wages. We estimate the matching function,...

This paper examines the quantitative importance of temporal aggregation bias in distorting parameter estimates and hypothesis tests. Our strategy is to consider two empirical examples in which temporal aggregation bias has the potential to account for results which are widely viewed as being...

This econometric study seeks to determine the most important factors of aggregate demand in Egypt so as to provide insight into how this developing nation can grow economically in the coming years. The Ordinary Least Squares estimation method was used in order to estimate nominal GDP for the...

We present a model of the time-allocation decision of spouses in order to study the role of heterogeneity in preferences and wages for couples' labor supply. Spouses differ in their tastes for market consumption and non-market goods and activities, and also in their offered or earned wages. They...

Besides temporal and spatial aggregation issues in the analysis of asymmetric response of retail gasoline prices, previous studies have also largely ignored parameter heterogeneity across fuel stations. This paper addresses the aggregation issues and the parameter homogeneity assumption by...

The nexus between debt and inequality has attracted considerable scholarly attention in the wake of the global financial crisis. One prominent candidate to explain the striking co-evolution of income inequality and private debt in this period has been the theory of upward-looking consumption...

We investigate how individuals think groups should aggregate members’ ordinal preferences -that is, how they interpret “the will of the people.” In an experiment, we elicit revealed attitudes toward ordinal preference aggregation and classify subjects according to the rules they apparently...

Proper measurement and aggregation of trade costs is of paramount importance for sound academic and policy analysis of the determinants - particularly those of policy - of economic outcomes. The international trade profession has witnessed significant new developments, both on the theoretical...

The modern Condorcet jury theorem states that under weak conditions, when voters have common interests, elections will aggregate information when the population is large, in any equilibrium. Here, we study the performance of large elections with population uncertainty. We find that the modern...

The analysis of future energy systems with increasing shares of renewable energy production poses various challenges to models used in the field of energy system analysis. Aggregation is one solution to reduce the computation time of large optimization problems, especially for optimization...