should the prevailing market price be below the pre-specified MSP. In this paper, we consider a market consisting of infinitesimally small, rational, and strategic farmers(with heterogeneous production costs) who face market and yield uncertainties. Our equilibrium analysis reveals that (i)...

We show how fat tails in agricultural commodity returns arise endogenously from productivity shocks in a standard macroeconomic model. Using nearly ninety years of data, we show that the eight agricultural commodities in our sample exhibit fat-tailed return distributions. Statistical tests...

Plant-based meat is an innovative and sustainable type of food that has been received with enthusiasm by consumers and investors. It is also a threat for the demand of traditional meat and for those crops used primarily as animal feed. In 2019, 59% of global corn and 83% of global soybean...

Biotic factors such as pests create biodiversity effects that increase production risks and decrease land productivity when agriculture becomes more specialized. We show in a Ricardian two-country trade setup that production specialization is incomplete under free trade because of the decrease...

The Common Agricultural Policy of the European Union (CAP) has a long tradition. After World War II, agricultural and food production in Europe was substantially weakened and unable to provide sufficient food for the domestic population. The CAP emerged from this situation, with the objectives...

The stability of business in an economy has always been the primary goal that is difficult to achieve, and inflation is most often used as its basic indicator. It is a signal of change in the general price level. The paper analyzes inflation and prices of agricultural and food products as a...

Short-term forecasting is usually made in recent literature by modeling the spot price of commodities such as coffee and cattle with ARIMA models and in some articles including volatility models. Unlike such articles, herein the models of the spot price of coffee and cattle are estimated...

In 2005 the EU lowered the guaranteed minimum prices for crops in its Common Agricultural Policy and stopped market interventions. Consequently, prices started to fluctuate more intensively, and farmers' incomes are now subject to higher price volatility. A crop price insurance scheme could...

A considerable number of studies have examined the relationship between global prices and local prices in food-importing nations, but the linkages between international prices and the producer prices of large agricultural exporters have been largely ignored. This paper analyzes the connections...

This article contributes to the existing empirical literature by examining the spillovers across price inflation and agricultural commodity prices for the case of Nigeria. To achieve this objective, we employ the Diebold and Yilmaz (Int J Forecast 28(1):57-66, 2012) spillover index....

We apply variance analysis for studying the risk-sharing mechanism in distribution channels, in which the risk-averse buyer and supplier are suffered from commodity price shocks. We obtain the closed-form optimal pass-through rate that minimizes the total channel risk and maximizes the channel...

Macroeconomists and growth economists often assume that the relative price of agriculture is determined domestically, and insulated from external forces. We examine this proposition empirically using panel data models with time effects and then an unobserved factor error structure. We find that...

This study follows from the recent move by most developing economies to introduce price support programs for selected cereals. For Ethiopia, we examine the price, quantity, welfare and government intervention effects of alternative producer and consumer price policies backed-up by public cereal...

This article analyzes the link between world prices and producer prices of rubber in Côte d’Ivoire. Using monthly data from 2006 to 2016, we gave special attention to structural breaks in the data and asymmetry in the transmission process. Empirical results validate the presence of two breaks...

This paper examines the dynamic effects of monsoon rainfall shocks on yield, wages, and prices in the Indian agricultural sector. We distinguish between positive and negative rainfall shocks and explicitly consider their spatial dimension (local/regional). We find that particularly negative...

Previous literature on price discovery in commodity markets is mainly focused on the question of whether the spot or the futures market dominates the price discovery process. Little attention, however, has been paid to the question of how the price discovery process is affected by futures...

1. Introduction -- 2. Consumer Demand: Theory -- 3. Consumer Demand: Separability and Commodity Aggregation -- 4. Consumer Demand: Empirical Analysis I -- 5. Consumer Demand: Empirical Analysis II -- 6. Quality, Heterogeneous Goods, and Cross Section Demand -- 7. Derived Demand, Marketing...

International commodity price shocks may have large impacts on producers in developing countries. In this paper, a unique household panel data from Ethiopia is utilize to show that a decrease in international coffee price has strong pass-through to the consumption of households that rely on...