I propose partial-equilibrium models that describe the dynamics of global wheat and corn markets. These models extend the classic competitive storage framework by incorporating nonstationary variables. They are calibrated using data from Ukraine and key importing and exporting countries. The...

This study investigates the relationship between gold prices, agricultural commodity prices (rice, flour, bean, chickpea, lentil, and sugar), and Turkish stock markets. Using the Fourier Toda-Yamamoto causality test and wavelet coherency approach, we find that gold prices significantly influence...

Establishing a clear link between prices of conventional and niche product versions can help address challenges associated with anticipating these prices and attenuate concerns related to thin market conditions. In that regard, we analyze the price dynamics, differentiating between agri-product...

The possible effect of the financialization of agricultural commodities on food security has become an evolving worry in recent years. This study seeks to empirically investigate this complicated problem and influence policy choices to ensure a more stable and secure food system by analyzing the...

The study investigates the effects of the Russian-Ukrainian war, the COVID-19 pandemic, and exchange rate fluctuations on the average return, contagion dynamics, and persistence of risks associated with three staples in Türkiye: wheat, sunflower oil, and corn. The pandemic and the war disrupted...

Previous studies on commodity price bubbles mainly focused on futures markets and ignored the performance of spot markets. Using the price data for corn and soybeans in China, this study identifies the exact bubble dates for the futures and spot markets, and finds asynchronous price bubbles...

This study explores the financialization of agricultural commodities, focusing on how financial derivatives and index funds impact the volatility of agro-food markets. Using a Dynamic Conditional Correlation (DCC) GARCH model, we analyze volatility spillovers among key agricultural commodities,...

This study examines the effects of distortion of agricultural price incentives on agricultural value added in East Africa. The World Bank, IFPRI, FAO, and CSP are the sources of data. The dataset ranges from 1981 to 2018, and the error-corrected LSDV model is used to analyze the data. The...

Agricultural inputs are experience goods: before purchasing them, buyers only observe their price, providing sellers an opportunity to cheat on quality. In a field experiment in rural Bangladesh, we replicate a market for experience goods, with agricultural input retailers (sellers) choosing...

Sustainable use of land resources is at the core of the bioeconomy, and it is of central importance for development in the coming decades. The United Nations Sustainable Development Goals reflect this aspect of development both directly and indirectly. Important global trends, such as a growing...

World food markets are susceptible to systemic shocks due to a concentration of production in a few main breadbasket regions, strong import dependencies of many developing countries, and frequent unilateral and uncoordinated policy interventions such as export restrictions.The well-established...

COVID-19 has thrown a stark, harsh light on the world’s economy and has had a significant impact on monetary policies worldwide. In China, the economy is entering a new normal, and the effect of monetary policy on agricultural commodity prices has induced noticeable structural changes. The...

This paper examines factors that affect the transmission of fluctuations in global agricultural commodity prices to domestic food inflation. Using panel regressions on data from 53 advanced and emerging-market countries, we investigate how factors such as local crop production conditions, the...

Global biofuel production has increased over tenfold since 2000 and numerous biofuel production plants have been built in the Great Plains region. We estimate the impact of biofuel plants on the agricultural economy with county-level data on the number of farm operators, net farm income (NFI),...

In this study, we examined the price transmission dynamics and market integration among domestic markets for Uganda's major staple foods (matoke, maize, and beans) utilizing the Granger causality analysis, bounds test, Wald test for long- and short-run asymmetry, and the nonlinear ARDL model....

Sustainable use of land resources is at the core of the bioeconomy, and it is of central importance for development in the coming decades. The United Nations Sustainable Development Goals reflect this aspect of development both directly and indirectly. Important global trends, such as a growing...

Die Ukraine und Russland spielen als Exporteure von Agrar- und Ernährungsprodukten eine zentrale Rolle für die globale Ernährungssicherheit. Die Studie von Berndt et al. (2022) untersucht mit globalen Gleichgewichtsmodellen, wie sich der Krieg im Extremfall auf globale Agrarpreise auswirken...

Purpose: This study focuses on forecasting the price of the most important export crops of vegetables and fruits in Egypt from 2016 to 2030. Design/methodology/approach: The study applied generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) model and autoregressive integrated moving...

The Russian invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022 dramatically disrupted the global supply of crude oil and agricultural commodities. As a consequence, the prices of oil and agricultural commodities increase substantially and many countries face the problem of high food inflation. Against...