In this paper, we develop new latent risk measures that are designed as a prior synthesis of key forecasting information associated with financial market contagion. These measures are based on the decomposition (using high-frequency financial data) of the quadratic covariation between two assets...

We document that the first and third cross-sectional moments of corporate bond returns significantly and positively predict future stock market returns both in- and out-of-sample. The predictability emerges from informed bond trading and gradual diffusion of information. Particularly, the...

We examine whether investor sentiment can explain anomalies such as size and book-to-market in the US stock market. Differently from the literature, we test combination portfolios (portfolios formed on more than one factor such as size, book-to-market ratio, etc.) of developed markets for the...

One of the most noticeable stylized facts in finance is that stock index returns are negatively correlated with changes in volatility. The economic rationale for the effect is still controversial. The competing explanations have different implications for the origin of the relationship: Are...

We examine the effect of ambiguity exposure on the cross-section of stock returns in the US equity market. In order to quantify ambiguity, we use a recently-developed methodology that measures ambiguity by perturbations in uncertain probabilities, and aversion to ambiguity by aversion to...

We study whether ESG ratings can predict stock returns in China. We find marginal evidence that stocks with higher ESG ratings have lower future returns. In addition, we explore the cross-sectional and time-series heterogeneities of the relationship between ESG and stock returns. We find the...

This paper considers an extension to Ang et al.’s (2006) non-linear downside beta framework. The extreme downside risk extension counts the extreme negative stock returns conditional on the market return being extremely negative. The extension is used in double-sorted portfolios, where I...

We construct a new quantile based lottery measure — QBL to evaluate the lottery preference feature of stocks. The new measure is different from the commonly used lottery proxies: maximum daily return (MAX) and skewness (SKEW). The relationship between the QBL and expected returns is negative...

I present evidence that a moving average trading strategy dominates buying and holding the underlying asset in a mean-variance sense using monthly returns of value-weighted and equal-weighted US REIT Indexes over the period January 1980 until December 2010. The abnormal returns are largely...

We develop an Artificial Stock Market - an agent-based simulation model of the stock market with many risky assets. The ASM has three layers of heterogeneous and interacting agents, and generates prices for 150 stocks. We present the current state of the model and demonstrate its ability to...

I present evidence that a moving average (MA) trading strategy has a greater average return and skewness as well as a lower variance compared to buying and holding the underlying asset using monthly returns of value-weighted US decile portfolios sorted by market size, book-to-market, and...

A combination of simple moving average (MA) trading strategies with several window lengths delivers a greater average return and skewness as well as a lower variance and kurtosis compared to buying and holding the underlying asset using daily returns of value-weighted US decile portfolios sorted...

Asset growth factor (AG) – the return on a portfolio that is long in shares of low asset growth firms and short in shares of high asset growth firms - is an economy-wide pervasive risk factor in the widely used Fama and French (2015) five-factor model (FF5) and in the Hou, Xue, and Zhang...

We study a novel mechanism through which real options play a prominent role in inducing the skewness of stock returns. Building on the investment-based asset pricing framework, we show that firms’ real options to contract (expand) their businesses when productivity is low (high) can increase...

The paper aims to investigate the impact of freedom dimensions, investor sentiment, and uncertainty on bank stock returns. Additionally, this study examines the interaction between economic freedom dimensions and oil prices. To meet the study's objectives, a two-step GMM estimator was applied to...

We show that the disposition effect-the tendency of investors to hold losers and sell winners-can be a source of overconfidence. We find experimental evidence that individuals update beliefs about their own investment ability based on realized gains and losses rather than the overall performance...

Purpose: This study investigates the return co-movements associated with investor sentiment shifts in the cross-sections under a setting where market-wide sentiment interacts with short-sale impediments. Design/methodology/approach: This study estimates the return sensitivity to market sentiment...

In this study, we show that changes in profitability predict a firm's stock returns and future profitability. We construct three horizon-based profitability changes, including short-, medium-, and long-term changes. We find that the predictive information for short-term changes in profitability...

We show that the disposition effect - the tendency of investors to hold losers and sell winners - can be a source of overconfidence. We find experimental evidence that individuals update beliefs about their own investment ability based on realized gains and losses rather than the overall...

We contribute to the literature by analyzing forecast combination methods in the context of machine learning to predict equity returns. Whilst individual models lack robustness, forecast combinations display stability and are able to produce improved results with Sharpe ratios up to 3.16. We use...

We explore the cross-section of factor returns using a sample of 150+ equity factors. Most factors exhibit a positive premium and a negative market beta in the long run. Factor themes with a clear positive beta, in particular low leverage and size, have no alpha after controlling for this beta...

We investigate how information choices impact equity returns and risk. Building on an existing theoretical model of information and investment choice, we estimate a learning index that reflects the expected benefits of learning about an asset. High learning index stocks have lower future returns...

This study quantifies the presence of financial distress in the cross section of stock returns. Systemic risk is defined as the occurrence of simultaneous tail events for a large fraction of firms. A tail event is interpreted as evidence of downside risk in the tail distribution of financial...

This study investigates the relationship between equity duration, stock liquidity, and market conditions, revealing that short-duration portfolios consistently deliver higher average returns compared to their long-duration counterparts, regardless of firm size, book-to-market ratios, and...

We find that the FOMC-announcement-day return premium earned by a firm is positively related to the increase in its ex ante, option-implied skewness prior to the announcement. This finding is consistent with: (1) the existence of an announcement-day Fed put that is partially anticipated by the...

A common approach in cross-sectional tests of macro asset pricing models is to employ factor-mimicking portfolios (FMP) estimated from basis assets that differ from the testing assets. This approach is theoretically incorrect and originates a specification error in the traded model, even if the...

A model of portfolio return dynamics is considered in which the price of risk is permitted to be heterogeneous. In doing this, a novel method is proposed that delivers improved out-of-sample forecasts of portfolio returns. The main innovation is the use of a set of predictors that account for...

We compare fund flows and asset valuations of bond mutual funds whose managers concurrently manage portfolios with performance-based fees and those whose managers do not. We find that bond mutual funds whose managers concurrently manage portfolios with performance-based fees receive less fund...

We provide new evidence on investor disagreement based on a model where investors observe public information but agree to disagree on its interpretation. Specifically, we measure firm-level investor disagreement by the intraday volume-volatility elasticity around corporate news announcement. A...

This article examines the validity of regressions that use the ratio variables as regressors for analyzing the stock returns. Although price-earnings and price-book value ratios have been often used as regressors, their coefficients rarely find the causal effects due to the omitted variables...

We posit that the pricing mechanism of interest rate risk is contingent upon the prevailing inflation levels; in times of high (low) inflation, a positive (negative) shock to interest rates is indicative of a negative economic state. In line with this proposition, we introduce a conditional...

We document profitable cross-sectional and time-series momentum in a broad set of 56 option factors constructed from monthly sorts on daily delta-hedged option positions. Option factor returns are highly autocorrelated, but momentum profits of strategies with longer formation periods are mainly...

We show that the disposition effect–the tendency of investors to hold losers and sell winners–can be a source of overconfidence. We find experimental evidence that individuals update beliefs about their own investment ability based on realized gains and losses rather than the overall...

The rapid growth of electric vehicles, solar roofs, and wind power suggests that the potential growth in green equity investments is an emerging trend. Accordingly, this study measured the predictors of excess equity returns in a portfolio of global green energy producers, from 2010 to 2019....