This working paper offers some considerations on the monetary policy framework of the European Central Bank. The trade-offs arising from adopting a point target configuration over a range target one are assessed in terms of their flexibility vs. inflation anchoring properties. This layout is...

One of the focuses of recent literature has been the macroeconomic effects of macroprudential policy instruments. The innovation of this paper is that it studies the effects of transparent macro-prudential policies on price stability. The results presented herein provide the first empirical...

While two strands of the literature suggest that PPI inflation, in addition to or instead of CPI inflation, should be a targeting variable in a monetary policy rule, the distinction between the two is only important when they do not co-move strongly. Our first contribution is to document that...

Inflation expectations are key determinants of economic activity and are central to the current policy debate about whether inflation expectations will remain anchored in the face of recent pandemic-related increases in inflation. This paper explores evidence of inattention by constructing two...

This paper compares the main intersectoral and national agricultural institutions in Russia and Switzerland during the period 2004-2019 and uses data from the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), an ordinary least squares model and fixed-effects models to assess the contributions of...

Recent energy and food price surges, in the wake of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, have exacerbated inflation pressuresthat are unusually high by the standards of the past two decades. High and rising inflation has prompted many emerging market and developing economy (EMDE) central banks and some...

Central banks create money to lend during credit crunches, which might lead to inflation. We examine whether the two key functions of central banks - price stability and last-resort lending - conflict. We develop a nominal model of bank runs à la Diamond and Dybvig (1983) in which individuals...

We propose a new approach to assessing the anchoring of inflation expectations using "strategic surveys". Namely, we measure households' revisions in long-run inflation expectations after they are presented with different economic scenarios. A key advantage of this approach is that it provides a...

This paper analyzes the time-varying credibility of the Fed's inflation target in an empirical macro model with asymmetric information, where the public has to learn about the actual inflation target from the Fed's interest rate policy. To capture the evolving communication strategy of the Fed,...

This paper analyses the mechanics of simple interest rate rules for two models----one with backward and the other with forward looking, rational expectations. The approach is to consider policy when faced with a specific task reducing inflation in a stabilizing manner. The two models are: (i)...

An issue with monetary policy rules to guide inflation is the indeterminacy of the price level. In the context of a traditional backward-looking and a modern forward-looking New-Keynesian Phillips curve, this paper examines the dynamic and steady state properties of interest rate rules anchored...

The real output effects of disinflation are shown to depend not only on whether inflation is flexible or persistent, but also on the type of policy rule used by the monetary authority to implement disinflation. This paper contrasts the consequences of a planned reduction in inflation for (1) an...

This paper examines the properties of interest rate rules aimed at controlling aggregate price inflation. Policies are compared in two models having either flexible or sticky inflation The latter is assumed to derive from a traditional, adaptive-expectations augmented Phillips curve. The...

This paper investigates the drivers of Turkish inflation by using a structural vector autoregression model, where monthly data on global oil prices, unemployment rates, inflation rates, policy rates and exchange rates are used. The empirical results show that Turkish inflation increases...

The paper analyses the reasons for Japan's persistently low inflation since the bursting of the Japanese bubble economy (low inflation conundrum). It is shown that Japan experienced a structural break from a high-growth period with relatively high inflation to a low-growth period with...

We use a representative online survey to investigate the inflation expectations of German consumers and the credibility of the ECB's inflation target during the recent high inflation period. We find that credibility has trended downwards since summer 2021, reaching an all-time low in April 2022....

We provide evidence on the reactions of the level and probability distribution of households’ expectations of inflation in the euro area to the ECB’s monetary strategy change to a symmetric inflation target in July 2021, and to the subsequent strong rise in euro area inflation above target....

Leading up to the Bank of Canada’s 2021 renewal of its agreement with the government of Canada, this Commentary evaluates alternatives to the Bank’s current inflation-targeting agreement, and recommends that the agreement continue in its present form. The important elements of monetary...

During the Brazilian hyperinflation period (1980-1994), several plans to control the inflation (stabilization plans) were implemented, relying on very diverse premises and a wide range of instruments of economic policy. Nevertheless, none of these plans had obtained success in the goal of...

Die derzeit hohe Inflation wird auch durch hohe Monopolrenten von Konzernen getrieben. Es liegt nicht eine Lohn-Preis-, sondern eine Gewinn-Preis-Spirale vor. Die Monopolrenten sind möglich, da zuletzt vor allem durch Firmenübernahmen marktbeherrschende Unternehmen entstanden sind. Auch...

Over the past 30 years (1990-2019), African economies have experienced remarkable improvements in real macroeconomic conditions, characterized by higher and more stable real per-capita growth rates, and lower and more stable inflation. This paper documents and seeks to explain these changes at...

The neutral real rate of interest (r*) is a key variable for assessing the tightness of monetary policy. The neutral real interest rate has by all accounts fallen substantially over the past three decades, amid slowing productivity growth, an ageing population, increased inequality and increased...

Those of professional forecasters do. For a wide range of time series models for the euro area and its member states we find a higher average forecast accuracy of models that incorporate information on inflation expectations from the ECB's SPF and Consensus Economics compared to their...

Why are we seeing inflation? The government dropped about $5 trillion in people's bank accounts, a classic fiscal helicopter drop. Why did this one produce inflation? People do not believe this debt will be repaid. Will inflation continue? Whether we see a one-time price-level increase or...

We survey retail investors at an online bank to study beliefs about the autocorrelation of aggregate stock returns, and how these beliefs shape investment decisions measured in administrative account data. Individuals' beliefs exhibit substantial heterogeneity and predict trading responses to...

This paper analyzes the welfare costs related to changes in monetary policy and trend inflation in the Postwar U.S. economy. We use a medium-scale New Keynesian DSGE model and find the following results. First, changes in monetary policy and trend inflation play an essential role in reducing...

Undesirable real effects have been attributed to floating exchange rates in general, and the 1980-83 appreciation of the dollar in particular.In the appreciating country, the U.S., export industries lose competitiveness and so output falls. In the other country, say Europe, the exchange rate...

The paper investigates the process of inflation stabilization under conditions of international capital mobility. A first part looks at the traditional view of inflation and payments problems as a reflection of fiscal problems and deficit finance. From there the analysis proceeds to the...