This paper examines the circumstances under which firms facilitate occupational transitions, complementing prior work that focuses on workers' decisions. We link unemployment insurance records with application diaries and clickstream data from a recruitment platform to causally assess how...

We analyze how value added taxes (VATs) affect labor market outcomes (firms' employee costs, wages, hours worked, employment). While VATs are designed to tax consumption, they are levied at the firm level, which creates potential spillovers to labor markets. We hypothesize that VATs affect wages...

We analyze how value added taxes (VATs) affect labor market outcomes (firms' employee costs, wages, hours worked, employment). While VATs are designed to tax consumption, they are levied at the firm level, which creates potential spillovers to labor markets. We hypothesize that VATs affect wages...

This paper studies how employment subsidies for start-ups shape their performance. We exploit an unexpected policy reform in Belgium that permanently exempted start-ups hiring their first employee from payroll taxes for that employee. Using firm-level administrative data and a...

How does firms' skill demand change as the business landscape evolves? We present evidence from the green transition by analyzing how hurricanes impact demand for green skills. These disasters signal the risks of not acting on environmental issues. We use data from U.S. online job postings...

• Occupations that are highly cognitive, non-physical, and low in social interaction - typically higher-skill white-collar roles such as data analysts, software developers, and translators - turn out to be highly AI-exposed • Occupations requiring manual dexterity or intensive interpersonal...

Belgium's 2016 payroll tax exemption for first-time employers triggered a sharp increase in firms hiring their first worker but little growth among larger firms. To account for this pattern, we develop and estimate a directed search model - with discrete hiring, firm heterogeneity, and...

This paper examines the private returns to education in the context of heterogeneous labour markets, using Peru as a case study. While education is widely considered a key driver of individual earnings and economic growth, its actual returns may be constrained by structural features of labour...

Microeconomic theory posits that in competitive markets, wages are determined by the marginal revenue product of labor. This study empirically tests this theoretical prediction using comprehensive firm-level register data from Finland's manufacturing and service industries in years 2000-2022. We...

The German labor market has undergone profound changes over the last decades. For a long time, the debate on structural change focused on the shift from manufacturing industries to services. This Weekly Report highlights that labor market changes are attributable to three developments: In...

We provide experimental evidence on how employers adjust expectations to automation risk in high-skill, white-collar work. Using a randomized information intervention among tax advisors in Germany, we show that firms systematically underestimate automatability. Information provision raises risk...

We provide experimental evidence on how employers adjust expectations to automation risk in high-skill, white-collar work. Using a randomized information intervention among tax advisors in Germany, we show that firms systematically underestimate automatability. Information provision raises risk...

This paper studies the cost-effectiveness of targeted payroll taxes for stimulating labor demand. It uses rich administrative data to study the effects of an Italian reform that raised social security contributions for apprenticeship contracts but granted a substantial discount for firms with 9...

This paper examines how firms adjust the number and types of workers they hire in response to increased biodiversity transition risk. Using the adoption of the Key Biodiversity Areas Standard of 2016 as a source of variation that increases the risk of future land-use restrictions, we find that...

We study the micro sources and macro consequences of worker–job matching across countries with large income differences. Using internationally comparable data on over 120,000 individuals in 30 countries, we document that workers' skills align more closely with their jobs' skill requirements in...

We provide experimental evidence on how employers adjust expectations to automation risk in high-skill, white-collar work. Using a randomized information intervention among tax advisors in Germany, we show that firms systematically underestimate automatability. Information provision raises risk...

This paper provides new evidence on the types of tasks that are carried out at work in the European Union (EU). It highlights the changes in the recent structural composition of employment in the EU-27, and it analyses the data on tasks in the context of labour and skills shortages and skill...

This paper provides new evidence on the types of tasks that are carried out at work in the European Union (EU). It highlights the changes in the recent structural composition of employment in the EU-27, and it analyses the data on tasks in the context of labour and skills shortages and skill...

As technological advances accelerate and labour demands shift, the ability of workers to reallocate across occupations will be crucial for shaping labour market dynamics, inequality, and effective policy design. In this paper, we develop a tractable equilibrium model of the labour market that...

This paper examines the causal impact of generative artificial intelligence on U.S. labor demand using online job posting data. Exploiting ChatGPT's release in November 2022 as an exogenous shock, the paper applies difference-in-differences and event study designs to estimate the job...

Economic growth in Sub-Saharan Africa is expected to increase from 3.5 percent in 2024 to 3.8 percent in 2025 and accelerate further to an annual average rate of 4.4 percent in 2026-27. Improved terms of trade are helping to stabilize local currencies, but real income per capita is only set to...

We evaluate the influence on the skill premium of the task content of jobs by exploiting the text data from online job ads covering 2009-2018 (over 189,000 ads) published by one of the leading Chilean online job portals (www.trabajando.com). Our analysis tests the expected complementarity...

Labour shortages in Europe have led firms to adopt two key strategies: automation and the employment of migrants. This study empirically examines the relationship between robot adoption and immigrant labour (differentiated by region of origin and education level) in Austrian firms using a novel...

To estimate the causal effect of employment protection on firms’ worker selection, we study apolicychangethatreduced dismissalcosts fortheemployersof overatenth of Sweden’s workforce. Our difference-in-differences analysis of firms’ hiring uses individual ability mea-sures including...

We study how artificial intelligence (AI) affects workers' earnings and employment stability, combining German job vacancy data with administrative records from 2017-2023. Identification comes from changes in workers' exposure to local AI skill demand over time, instrumented with national demand...

This paper examines the private returns to education in the context of heterogeneous labour markets, using Peru as a case study. While education is widely considered a key driver of individual earnings and economic growth, its actual returns may be constrained by structural features of labour...

Following the COVID-19 pandemic, Korea's unemployment rate has remained significantly lower than pre-pandemic levels. This paper examines the dynamics of unemployment through a framework of labor market flows incorporating a matching function and identifies a sustained increase in labor market...

Skill shortages are a type of skill mismatch whereby employers are unable to fill existing vacancies due to a lack of suitably qualified and/or skilled candidates. Despite representing a significant concern for policy makers, both at national and EU level, the literature on skill shortages is...

This paper explores the role of employment pool composition on labor matching effectiveness in ten Central and Eastern European countries from 2005 to 2023. We control for the structure of the labor force in terms of education, age, and gender. The results point towards a significant impact of...