This brief is focused on the possibility of a change in US trade defence policy towards China in light of the forthcoming US elections, which may affect EU exports to the US with high Chinese value added content.

In July 1991, India began to dismantle its long-standing, highly restrictive import control regime and move toward a more open economy. How were policymakers able to dislodge and replace an entrenched system with powerful vested interests behind it? Standard explanations for policy change -...

Purpose - The purpose of this paper is to analyse the international political economy of Korea and its effects due to geopolitical tension between China and the USA. Design/methodology/approach - Economic war between China and the USA has prolonged longer than expected. Aftermath of the COVID-19...

Europe • Germany must once again see itself as an important part of and a leading nation within the EU. The new German government should consistently think and act in a European way on foreign trade issues. • Only a strong EU single market can compete on equal terms with the USA and China....

This study endeavors to explore the shock-transmission mechanism between Trade Policy Uncertainty (TPU) and the volatility inherent in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) Islamic stock markets by employing the novel Quantile Vector Auto Regression (QVAR) with "Extended Joint" and "Frequency"...

This paper studies the role of dataset choices for trade policy estimates in structural gravity models. Using twelve publicly available data sources and applying alternative and commonly used dataset restrictions, we obtain 586 estimates for the EU membership trade effects from a standard...

This paper examines the impact of safeguard import tariffs on market diversity in Ecuador from 2015 to 2017. Using firm-level data, we estimate the effects of tariffs on revenue and market shares in the Manufacturing and Wholesale & Retail (W&R) sectors with a Quantile Treatment Effect on the...

In retaliating against Trump’s March 2025 imposition of import tariffs on EU aluminum and steel, the EU’s response should be twofold: one, at the EU level, to apply retaliatory tariffs and negotiations, and two, to support country-level efforts to minimize the impact of tariffs, including...

Aus strategischer Sicht ist es wichtig zu wissen, wo die deutsche Wirtschaft Stärken hat. Wenn Deutschland bei bestimmten Waren den Export dominiert, sind andere Länder hier von der Bundesrepublik ein Stück weit abhängig. Gerade in Zeiten von Handelskonflikten kann das ein Trumpf sein, um...

This study aims to explore the relationship between macroeconomic factors and the decision to file an anti-dumping (AD) initiation, focusing on the post-WTO period from 1995 to 2022 for both reporting and targeted countries. We analyze the 20 most frequent users of the AD mechanism and the 20...

Adequate policy space is essential for resource-rich countries to move up the value chain and seize the opportunities presented by global decarbonization and the demand for low-carbon technologies. However, WTO rules, investment and free trade agreements (FTAs) deprive nonhegemonic powers of the...

Als Bestandteil der Weltwirtschaft sieht sich die deutsche Industrie drei Herausforderungen gegenüber. Erstens, der unilateralen Handelspolitik von "Trump 2.0" und ihre negativen Auswirkungen auf die globale Handelsordnung. Zweitens, der sinkenden globalen Nachfrage nach deutschen Exportgütern...

How does dismantling deep integration affect international trade? This paper provides new evidence on the consequences of disintegration by estimating the impact of Brexit on goods trade by UK firms. The UK’s exit from the EU’s single market and customs union in January 2021 led to an...

In times of heightened uncertainty surrounding US trade policy, it is increasingly vital to secure a development-friendly approach toward African countries. They are among the most vulnerable to climate change, conflicts and pandemics, yet are also gaining geo-economic significance. Given the...