This paper makes the case for measuring economic activity in real time in a middle-income setting using indicators alternative to the standard System of National Accounts measure of gross domestic product (GDP). GDP remains indispensable, yet its limits as a welfare proxy are amplified where...

imely assessment of regional economic activity in Ukraine is severely constrained by institutional and data-related limitations. Official regional gross regional product (GRP) statistics are available only at low frequency, are published with substantial delays, and, in the post-2022 period, are...

Forecasts that minimize mean squared forecast error (MSE) often exhibit excessive volatility, limiting their practical applicability. We address this accuracy smoothness trade-off by introducing a Multivariate Smooth Sign Accuracy (M-SSA) framework, which extracts smoothed components from...

We examine the state dependence of monetary policy transmission and the parameters of the Phillips curve, dynamic IS equation, and Taylor rule across four regimes defined by joint deviations of inflation from the Federal Reserve's target and output from potential. The analysis uncovers important...

Der Produktionsindex für die Gesamtwirtschaft ist ein neuer zusammengesetzter Konjunkturindikator. Er kombiniert vier Konjunkturindizes, die den größten Teil der Gewerblichen Wirtschaft abdecken: die Produktionsindizes für die Industrie, das Baugewerbe, den Dienstleistungssektor sowie den...

Die Weltwirtschaft ist derzeit von handelspolitischen Schocks und hoher Unsicherheit geprägt. Im Prognosezeitraum wird der Welthandel in Folge der schwächeren Weltkonjunktur und der bestehenden Handelskonflikte nur sehr verhalten expandieren. Er wird in diesem Jahr um 1,9 % und im kommenden...

Die deutsche Wirtschaft und der Arbeitsmarkt entwickeln sich seit drei Jahren schwach. Die Fiskalpakete werden die Konjunktur zwar beleben, die Beschäftigungsentwicklung stößt aber an Grenzen. Der Kurzbericht gibt einen Ausblick auf die Jahre 2025 und 2026.

Der Arbeitsmarkt in Deutschland ist weiterhin durch Stagnation gekennzeichnet. Bundesweit bleiben Beschäftigung und Arbeitslosigkeit 2026 im Vergleich zu 2025 nahezu unverändert. Auf Ebene der Bundesländer und der Agenturbezirke zeigen sich teilweise positive Entwicklungen, die jedoch bisher...

Die deutsche Wirtschaft ist im Herbst 2025 nach einer mehrjährigen Rezession zwiegespalten zwischen einer aufwärtsgerichteten Binnenkonjunktur und einem bremsenden Außenhandel. So liefert die Binnennachfrage einen Wachstumsbeitrag in Höhe von 1,7 % für das BIP im laufenden Jahr. Jedoch wird...

Moving beyond Gross Domestic Product (GDP) as the sole measure of economic performance is increasingly critical for addressing the complex challenges of sustainable development. The Inclusive Wealth Index (IWI) offers a more comprehensive framework for assessing long-term sustainability by...

Iceland continues to face CO₂ emission challenges despite its near-total reliance on renewable energy. This study analyzes the effects of GDP per capita, renewable energy consumption (RENC), foreign direct investment (FDI), and urbanization on CO2 emissions from 1990 to 2023, using an ARDL...

This study investigates the main drivers of inflation measured by CPI inflation and GDP deflator across 20 advanced and emerging economies over the yearly span from 2014 to 2023. Using Principal Component Analysis and Panel Vector Autoregression, the research examines the roles of supply-side...

This study aimed to forecast the gross domestic product (GDP) of the South Caucasian nations (Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Georgia) by scrutinizing the accuracy of various econometric methodologies. This topic is noteworthy considering the significant economic development exhibited by these...

The COVID-19 pandemic triggered unprecedented economic disruptions, raising critical questions about the resilience and adaptability of macroeconomic productivity across countries. This study examines the impact of COVID-19 on macroeconomic efficiency and productivity dynamics in 37 OECD...

This study considers the nonlinear relationship between GDP growth and unemployment in France (1975-2024) using a logistic smooth transition regression (LSTR) model. Findings reveal a threshold unemployment rate of 7.93%, above which the traditional Okun's law holds (GDP growth reduces...

This study examines whether green growth and institutional quality index (i.e. anti-corruption, political stability, rule of law, voice and accountability, regulatory quality and government effectiveness) of selected 40 countries increase or reduce carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from 2000 to...

This publication evaluates various real-time GDP nowcasting models for the euro area and six member countries (Belgium, Germany, Spain, France, Italy, and the Netherlands) using recent data from 2021 to 2024. It compares individual models and model averages at different estimation points,...

We estimate the effect of COVID-19 vaccination on economic growth in OECD countries using forecast errors in quarterly real GDP growth. These forecasts were published at the end of 2020, before vaccines were approved or widely anticipated, making them a credible benchmark to identify the...

This paper introduces two methodological improvements to the Hodrick- Prescott (HP) filter for decomposing GDP into trend and cycle components. First, we propose a robust univariate filter that accounts for extreme observations - such as the COVID-19 pandemic - by treating them as additive...