We suggest a core set of indicators for evaluating the position of the labor market relative to maximum employment. The unemployment rate remains the key indicator of the cyclical position of the labor market, as it is time-tested, is highly correlated with other indicators, and has practical...

This study investigates the leverage effect and realized volatility (RV) of stocks in the presence of asymmetric jumps across economic expansions and contractions. We extend the heterogeneous autoregressive-realized volatility (HAR-RV) model by incorporating a two-period Markov regime-switching...

Pro-cyclical fiscal policy is considered harmful. Nonetheless, pro-cyclicality is widespread and the cyclicality of fiscal policy isstrongly heterogenous in advanced economies. This paper investigates how differences in the cyclicality of fiscal policy can be understood through the lens of...

This paper identifies electricity supply shocks by exploiting the fact that variations in wind speed at turbine locations are exogenous with respect to macroeconomic outcomes and drive electricity prices in European wholesale markets inframarginally. Instrumenting electricity price changes with...

In April, sceptical economic assessments continued to prevail. By sector, the deterioration was particularly evident in services and retail trade. In manufacturing, economic assessments improved but remained at a low level. Compared with the previous quarter, uncertainty rose particularly in...

We propose a nonlinear framework to study the dynamic transmission of aggregate and idiosyncratic shocks to household income that exploits both macro and micro data. Our approach allows us to examine empirically the following questions: (a) How do business-cycle fluctuations modulate the...

Imports feature at all stages of production as well as in final consumption, and this is key to how tariff shocks play out. If imposed on imports in upstream sectors, import tariffs lower domestic output in downstream sectors; if imposed downstream, they raise upstream production. The aggregate...

We propose a nonlinear framework to study the dynamic transmission of aggregate and idiosyncratic shocks to household income that exploits both macro and micro data. Our approach allows us to examine empirically the following questions: (a) How do business-cycle fluctuations modulate the...

Firms respond heterogeneously to aggregate fluctuations, yet standard linear models impose restrictive assumptions on firm sensitivities. Applying the Generalized Random Forest to U.S. firm-level data, we document strong nonlinearities in how firm characteristics shape responses to macroeconomic...

We present an Uncertainty Perception Indicator (UPI) for Germany based on the dynamic topic modelling technique RollingLDA. In contrast to conventional LDA, where all data is processed in one go, the recursive structure of RollingLDA ensures that data is made available for modeling as soon as it...

This paper makes a twofold contribution. First, it develops the dynamic factor model of by allowing for fractional integration instead of imposing the classical dichotomy between I(0) stationary and I(1) non-stationary series. This more general setup provides valuable information on the degree...

This article examines the relationship between business cycles and renewable energy consumption (REC/capita) in the European Union (EU) over the past two decades. Using a panel data regression model, the study identifies GDP growth, government effectiveness, regulatory quality, and political...

This paper studies how aggregate labor market conditions affect the intragenerational assimilation of immigrants in the hosting country. Using data from the American Community Survey, we leverage variation in the forecast errors for national and local unemployment rates in the US at the time of...

We use a quantitative heterogeneous agent model with nominal rigidities and unemployment risk to analyze the effectiveness of several fiscal policies in stabilizing a demand-driven recession. The model delivers empirically realistic distributions of marginal propensities to consume (mpc) and...

We assess the impact of macroprudential measures on macroeconomic stability using a DSGE model in which firms can access both direct and indirect financing. The model is calibrated with data from the euro area. We compare two different macroprudential rules (time-invariant and counter-cyclical)...

Canada's universities each receive an annual operating grant from their provincial government to partially finance operating expenses. This paper estimates the sensitivity of provincial operating grants to the business cycle by disentangling the effects of procyclical income on government...

Recently, several studies have argued about the interactions of the real economy and financial system, as well as the importance of financial cycles in business cycle fluctuations. To date, there exists near consensus among central bankers, economists, and other scholars that the financial cycle...

This study extends the concept of granularity from firms to cities, examining how large cities influence national economic dynamics beyond their relative size. By applying Zipf's law, which describes the power law distribution of city sizes, we investigate the interplay between granularity and...

How do the business cycle effects of loan supply shocks depend on the state of prudential regulation in the euro area? To address this question, we first identify regulatory cycles from a cumulative prudential policy index that tracks the evolution of the regulatory stance in the euro area....

Empirical evidence suggests consumers rely on their shopping experiences to form beliefs about inflation. In other words, they "learn by shopping". I introduce this empirical observation as an informational friction in the New Keynesian model and use it to study its consequences for the...

This paper examines the impact of economic fluctuations on social norms, specifically exploring the link between changes in unemployment and shifts in attitudes toward gender roles in the labor market. The results are not immediately obvious, as the literature suggests several potential...