Search Results - subject_exact:"Business cycle theory"

Narrow search

The young Robert Triffin’s criticism of purchasing power parity theory

Maes, Ivo; Pasotti, Ilaria - 2024

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015085243

Nonlinear business-cycle anatomy

Brianti, Marco; Forni, Mario; Gambetti, Luca; Granese, … - 2026

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015618777

Show one more version 1

Nonlinear business-cycle anatomy

Brianti, Marco; Forni, Mario; Gambetti, Luca; Granese, … - 2026

Book / Working Paper

Inadequacy of revenues and endogenous economic cycles in a monetary economy of production

Cottin-Euziol, Edouard; Piluso, Nicolas - 2026

The recurring cycles of economic activity in a capitalist economy have prompted a variety of explanations. Some of these focus on the excessive indebtedness of economic agents during a growth phase, which may result from overly optimistic behavior or excessive risk-taking. From a post-Keynesian...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015650708

Nonlinear business-cycle anatomy

Brianti, Marco; Forni, Mario; Gambetti, Luca; Granese, … - 2026

Building on a frequency-domain identification within a nonlinear Structural Dynamic Factor Model, we study the nonlinear transmission of demand and supply shocks, the two shocks accounting for the bulk of fluctuations in U.S. macroeconomic variables. Supply shocks propagate symmetrically and are...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015627060

Show one more version 1

Nonlinear business-cycle anatomy

Brianti, Marco; Forni, Mario; Gambetti, Luca; Granese, … - 2026

Book / Working Paper

Dancing on the saddles : a geometric framework for stochastic equilibrium dynamics

Lee, Hanbaek - 2026

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015651553

Stabilization vs. growth

Faria-e-Castro, Miguel; Paul, Pascal; Sanchez, Juan M. - 2026

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015667242

Show one more version 1

Stabilization vs. growth

Faria-e-Castro, Miguel; Paul, Pascal; Sanchez, Juan M. - 2026

Book / Working Paper

Pricing-to-market in business cycle models

Drozd, Lukasz A.; Kolasa, Marcin; Nosal, Jaromir - 2026

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015669379

Eluding the predators : the Goodwin cycle with workforce precarization in Japan

Di Guilmi, Corrado; Caricchio, Enrico - 2026

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015676132

Essays on nonlinear business cycles

Juul, Oskar - 2026 - First edition

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10016060880

Pointlessness of average period of production : a critique of Lewin and Cachanosky

Rapka, Przemysław - 2026

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10016083051

Business cycle variations in manager and investor sentiment indices

Zoubi, Haitham al- - 2026

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015626606

Review essay : the young Hayek

Maes, Ivo - 2023

Friedrich Hayek has been one of the dominating intellectual figures of the 20th century. Hayek, together with Gunnar Myrdal, received the 1974 Nobel Memorial Prize in economics, for "their pioneering work in the theory of money and economic fluctuations and for their penetrating analysis of the...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10014343108

Show one more version 1

Review essay: The young Hayek

Maes, Ivo - 2023

Book / Working Paper

Shock persistence, uncertainty, and news-driven business cycles

Lee, Kevin; Shields, Kalvinder K.; Turnip, Guido - 2025

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015617217

Show one more version 1

Shock persistence, uncertainty and news-driven business cycles

Lee, Kevin; Shields, Kalvinder K.; Turnip, Guido - 2022

Book / Working Paper

Payment-Chain Crises

Bigio, Saki; Méndez, Esteban; Van Patten, Diana - 2026

This paper introduces an endogenous network of payment chains into a business cycle model. Motivated by evidence of linked payments across firms in Costa Rica, we develop a framework where production orders form bilateral relations: some payments are executed immediately, while others---chained...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015593705

Business cycles with pricing cascades

Ghassibe, Mishel; Nakov, Anton - 2025

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015546607

Show 2 more versions 2

Business cycles with pricing cascades

Ghassibe, Mishel; Nakov, Anton - 2025

Book / Working Paper

Business cycles with pricing cascades

Ghassibe, Mishel; Nakov, Anton - 2025

Book / Working Paper

Pricing and Production Without the Invisible Hand

Flynn, Joel P.; Nikolakoudis, George; Sastry, Karthik - 2026

Modern theories of the business cycle do not allow for the simultaneous rational choice of both prices and quantities, instead assuming that an "invisible hand" determines one of these variables to clear markets. In this paper, we develop a macroeconomic model in which both prices and quantities...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015671229

Reduction of CO₂ emissions, climate damage and the persistence of business cycles : a model of (de)coupling

Gallo, Ettore - 2025

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015654494

Equilibrium cycle : a "Dynamic" equilibrium

Walunj, Tushar Shankar; Singhal, Shiksha; Kavitha, Veeraruna - 2026

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10016061411

Dancing in the dark : sentiment shocks and economic activity

Boeck, Maximilian; Enders, Zeno; Kleemann, Michael; … - 2025

The business cycle is driven by expectations - some justified, some not - as documented by a host of studies. What is less clear are the conditions that make the economy susceptible to "sentiment shocks." In this paper, we document that uncertainty, as measured by forecaster disagreement, is...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015548868

Not-so-cleansing-recessions

Bajo, Igli; Bennhoff, Frederik H.; Ferrari, Alessandro - 2026

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015617599

Relative risk aversion and business fluctuations

Hashimoto, Ken'ichi; Im, Ryonghun; Kunieda, Takuma; … - 2025

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015187362

Show 2 more versions 2

Relative risk aversion and business fluctuations

Hashimoto, Ken'ichi; Im, Ryonghun; Kunieda, Takuma; … - 2025

Book / Working Paper

Relative risk aversion and business fluctuations

Hashimoto, Ken'ichi; Im, Ryonghun; Kunieda, Takuma; … - 2025

Book / Working Paper

The origins and propagation of animal spirits shocks

Nirei, Makoto; Ragot, Xavier - 2026

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015619768

Show one more version 1

The origins and propagation of animal spirits shocks

Nirei, Makoto; Ragot, Xavier - 2025

Book / Working Paper

Granular sentiments

Jamilov, Rustam; Kohlhas, Alexandre; Talavera, Oleksandr; … - 2026

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015617279

Show 3 more versions 3

Granular sentiments

Jamilov, Rustam; Kohlhas, Alexandre; Talavera, Oleksandr; … - 2025

Book / Working Paper

Granular sentiments

Jamilov, Rustam; Kohlhas, Alexandre; Talavera, Oleksandr; … - 2024

Book / Working Paper

Granular sentiments

Jamilov, Rustam; Kohlhas, Alexandre; Talavera, Oleksandr; … - 2024

Book / Working Paper

Differentiable, filter free Bayesian estimation of DSGE models using mixture density networks

Naubert, Christopher - 2025 - Last updated: January 16, 2025

I develop a methodology for Bayesian estimation of globally solved, non-linear macroeconomic models. A novel feature of my method is the use of a mixture density network to approximate the distribution of initial states. I use the methodology to estimate a medium-scale, two-agent New Keynesian...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015187509

Monitoring business cycle fluctuations in Asia

Pundit, Madhavi; Ramayandi, Arief; Simba, Patrick Jaime A. - 2025

Timely updates of business cycle fluctuations-commonly represented by movements in the output gap-help policymakers make informed decisions on the appropriate course of action. Unfortunately, business cycle assessments often suffer from lags in actual gross domestic product data releases. This...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015191532

Dynamic perturbation

Mennuni, Alessandro; Rubio-Ramírez, Juan Francisco; … - 2025

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015359454

Economic dynamics may be different than it seems : multiplicity of relevant economic cycles

Chudziak, Szymon - 2025

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015359810

News shocks, consumer confidence, and business cycles

Hussain, Syed M.; Liaqat, Zara - 2025

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015361608

Green ambiguity

Carli, Marco - 2025

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015326344

Endogenous business cycles with small and large firms

Haque, Qazi; Pavlov, Oscar; Weder, Mark - 2025

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015580793

Show 2 more versions 2

Endogenous business cycles with small and large firms

Haque, Qazi; Pavlov, Oscar; Weder, Mark - 2025

Book / Working Paper

Endogenous business cycles with small and large firms

Haque, Qazi; Pavlov, Oscar; Weder, Mark - 2025

Book / Working Paper

Kaldor, Hicks and Goodwin meet the supermultiplier : on growth cycles and autonomous demand

Gallo, Ettore - 2025

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015474217

Emergence of chaotic dynamics in the Goodwin model with disequilibrium in the goods market

Bella, Giovanni - 2025

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015436540

Excess capacity and demand-driven business cycles

Sun, Tiancheng - 2025

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015458926

Computing aggregate fluctuations of economies with private information

Veracierto, Marcelo - 2025

This paper introduces a general method for computing aggregate fluctuations in economies with private information. Instead of the cross-sectional distribution of agents across individual states, the method uses as a state variable a vector of spline coefficients describing a long history of past...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015460260

Self-control cycles

Ikeda, Shinsuke; Ojima, Takeshi - 2025

Consumers often exhibit behavioral cycles with alternating abstinence and indulgence over time. In the framework of tempting good consumption under limited willpower, we develop a simple model of the self-control cycles. To do so, based on the empirically relevant property of self-control, we...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015441340

Risk scenarios and macroeconomic forecasts

Moran, Kevin; Surprenant, Stéphane; Stevanović, Dalibor - 2025 - Last updated: October 31, 2025

This paper discusses the usefulness of risk scenarios-forecasts conditional on specific future paths for economic variables and shocks-for monitoring the Canadian economy. To do so, we use a vector autoregressive (VAR) approach to produce macroeconomic forecasts conditional on four risk...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015607887

Uncovering subjective models from survey expectations

Hou, Chenyu; Wang, Tao - 2025 - Last updated: November 6, 2025

Households may perceive that macroeconomic variables move together in a different way from that implied by their actual realizations and sophisticated models. We use a structural test derived from a multivariate noisy-information framework and additional evidence from survey data and newspaper...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015607901

Cycles and their important shocks : completing the investigation

Gillman, Max; Pagan, Adrian R. - 2025

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015610132

Predicting the business cycle in South Africa : insights from a real-financial activity gap

Magubane, Khwazi Declek; Mdluli-Maziya, Phindile; Wesi, … - 2025

Traditional approaches to predicting business cycles are limited by their omission of financial variables, which, in turn, leads to failures to signal financial-sector crises and to misestimate the duration and intensity of economic events. This study addresses this challenge by constructing a...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015615538

From Samuelson's multiplier-accelerator to bifurcations and chaos in economic dynamics

Bischi, Gian Italo - 2025

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015594648

Efficiency wages, consumption inequality and self-fulfilling business cycles

Dai, Wei; Weder, Mark; Zhang, Bo - 2025

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015549571

Spending allocation under nominal uncertainty : a model of effective price rigidity

Gaballo, Gaetano; Paciello, Luigi - 2025

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015551505

Business cycles in Chile (2000-2023) : analysing GDP and the components of aggregate demand

Tutiven-Desintonio, Cindy Gianella - 2025

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015551972

The origins and propagation of animal spirits shocks

Nirei, Makoto; Ragot, Xavier - 2026

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015619768

Show one more version 1

The origins and propagation of animal spirits shocks

Nirei, Makoto; Ragot, Xavier - 2025

Book / Working Paper

A behavioral foundation for the investment wedge

L'Huillier, Jean-Paul; Lopez, Pierlauro; Singh, Sanjay R. - 2025

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015555738

Decomposing US economic fluctuations : a trend-cycle approach

2025

This paper proposes a unified framework to study the permanent and transitory origins of US economic fluctuations. The model provides a reasonable account of the evolution of the economy in the post-war period and of the recent inflation episode. Overall, it constitutes a comprehensive framework...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015520665