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The macroeconomic effects of AI uncertainty

Reyes, Juan Rufino M. - 2026

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015618189

Firm liquidity and the origins of aggregate fluctuations in a network economy

Eshraghi, Mohsen - 2026

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015619062

External shocks, fiscal transmission mechanisms, and macroeconomic volatility : evidence from Ecuador

Diaz-Kovalenko, Igor Ernesto - 2026

This paper investigates how external shocks propagate through fiscal transmission mechanisms in a commodity-dependent economy within a dynamic macroeconomic framework. The study contributes to the literature on macroeconomic fluctuations by examining the interaction between external revenue...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015626038

Nonlinear business-cycle anatomy

Brianti, Marco; Forni, Mario; Gambetti, Luca; Granese, … - 2026

Building on a frequency-domain identification within a nonlinear Structural Dynamic Factor Model, we study the nonlinear transmission of demand and supply shocks, the two shocks accounting for the bulk of fluctuations in U.S. macroeconomic variables. Supply shocks propagate symmetrically and are...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015627060

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Nonlinear business-cycle anatomy

Brianti, Marco; Forni, Mario; Gambetti, Luca; Granese, … - 2026

Book / Working Paper

Unemployment fluctuation and referral hiring

Ogisu, Yoshitaka - 2026

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015639245

European temporary migration in a two country DSGE model

Budnik, Katarzyna - 2026

Free movement of labour across borders can influence business cycle dynamics in the affected countries. This paper studies the macroeconomic implications of temporary migration using a two-country dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model calibrated to represent the "old" EU Member States...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015641348

Different no more : country spreads in advanced and emerging economies

Born, Benjamin; Müller, Gernot J.; Pfeifer, Johannes; … - 2026

Interest rate spreads vary widely across time and countries and are a central driver of business cycles in emerging market economies (EMEs). Since 2008, advanced market economies (AMEs) have exhibited persistently higher and more volatile spreads, alongside increased macroeconomic volatility and...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015633716

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Different no more: country spreads in advanced and emerging economies

Born, Benjamin; Müller, Gernot J.; Pfeifer, Johannes; … - 2020

Book / Working Paper

Different no more : country spreads in advanced and emerging economies

Born, Benjamin; Müller, Gernot J.; Pfeifer, Johannes; … - 2020

Book / Working Paper

Different no more: country spreads in advanced and emerging economies

Born, Benjamin; Müller, Gernot J.; Pfeifer, Johannes; … - 2020

Book / Working Paper

Nonprofit revenue portfolios and exposure to business cycle risk

Searing, Elizabeth; St. Clair, Travis - 2025

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015584327

Forecasting Markov switching vector autoregressions : evidence from simulation and application

Cavicchioli, Maddalena - 2025

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015374001

Economic forecasting with German newspaper articles

Berger, Tino; Wintter, Simon - 2025

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015374058

Product variety and quality in trade dynamics

Hamano, Masashige - 2025

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015210739

Economic expectations remain subdued at the beginning of the year : results of the WIFO-Konjunkturtest quarterly survey of January 2025

Hölzl, Werner; Bierbaumer, Jürgen; Klien, Michael; … - 2025

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015330829

Economic assessments remained cautious in spring : results of the WIFO-Konjunkturtest quarterly survey of April 2025

Hölzl, Werner; Bierbaumer, Jürgen; Klien, Michael; … - 2025

In April, sceptical economic assessments continued to prevail. By sector, the deterioration was particularly evident in services and retail trade. In manufacturing, economic assessments improved but remained at a low level. Compared with the previous quarter, uncertainty rose particularly in...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015418901

Nonlinear micro income processes with macro shocks

Almuzara, Martín; Arellano, Manuel; Blundell, Richard W.; … - 2025 - Revised October 2025

We propose a nonlinear framework that exploits both macro and micro data to study the dynamic transmission of aggregate and idiosyncratic shocks to household income. We develop identification arguments and estimation methods that combine macro time series and time series of panels. Using U.S....

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015445072

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Nonlinear micro income processes with macro shocks

Almuzara, Martín; Arellano, Manuel; Blundell, Richard W.; … - 2025

Book / Working Paper

Nonlinear micro income processes with macro shocks

Almuzara, Martín; Arellano, Manuel; Blundell, Richard W.; … - 2025

Book / Working Paper

Business cycle fluctuations and monetary policy under heterogeneous information

Baeriswyl, Romain; Clerc, Pierrick; Cornand, Camille - 2025

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015466884

Assessing maximum employment

Foote, Christopher L.; Fujita, Shigeru; Michaud, Amanda; … - 2025

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015467961

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Assessing maximum employment

Foote, Christopher L.; Fujita, Shigeru; Michaud, Amanda; … - 2025

Book / Working Paper

Assessing maximum employment

Foote, Christopher L.; Fujita, Shigeru; Michaud, Amanda; … - 2025 - This version: September 2025

Edition: This version: September 2025

Book / Working Paper

Non-homothetic demand shifts and inflation inequality

Orchard, Jacob - 2025 - This version: August 2025

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015471516

Kaldor, Hicks and Goodwin meet the supermultiplier : on growth cycles and autonomous demand

Gallo, Ettore - 2025

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015474217

Inside the "black box" of the nexus between economic conditions and crime : can the relationship be mitigated?

Asllani, Alban; Goulas, Eleftherios; Karidis, Socrates - 2025

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015474260

The role of cyclical inflation : evidence from Japan

Sakaguchi, Takuya; Shibamoto, Masahiko - 2025

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015450381

The macroeconomic effects of a greener technology mix

Ferriani, Fabrizio; Gazzani, Andrea; Natoli, Filippo - 2025

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015406498

The propagation of tariff shocks via production networks

Antonova, Anastasiia; Huxel, Luis; Matvieiev, Mykhailo; … - 2025

Imports feature at all stages of production as well as in final consumption, and this is key to how tariff shocks play out. If imposed on imports in upstream sectors, import tariffs lower domestic output in downstream sectors; if imposed downstream, they raise upstream production. The aggregate...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015407816

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The propagation of tariff shocks via production networks

Antonova, Anastasiia; Huxel, Luis; Matvieiev, Mykhailo; … - 2025

Book / Working Paper

Renewable energy supply shocks from wind electricity

Patzelt, Paula - 2025

This paper identifies electricity supply shocks by exploiting the fact that variations in wind speed at turbine locations are exogenous with respect to macroeconomic outcomes and drive electricity prices in European wholesale markets inframarginally. Instrumenting electricity price changes with...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015459607

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Renewable Energy Supply Shocks from Wind Electricity

Patzelt, Paula - 2025

Book / Working Paper

Renewable energy supply shocks from wind electricity

Patzelt, Paula - 2025 - This version: August 30, 2025

Edition: This version: August 30, 2025

Book / Working Paper

Hands tied : are some institutional arrangements more counter-cyclical?

Nollenberger, Jeremiah - 2025

Pro-cyclical fiscal policy is considered harmful. Nonetheless, pro-cyclicality is widespread and the cyclicality of fiscal policy isstrongly heterogenous in advanced economies. This paper investigates how differences in the cyclicality of fiscal policy can be understood through the lens of...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015492245

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Hands tied: Are some institutional arrangements more counter-cyclical?

Nollenberger, Jeremiah - 2025

Book / Working Paper

Economic assessments largely unchanged : results of the WIFO-Konjunkturtest (Business Cycle Survey) quarterly survey of October 2025

Hölzl, Werner; Bierbaumer, Jürgen; Klien, Michael; … - 2025

Economic sentiment improved slightly in October in all sectors except retail trade, although scepticism remained prevalent in manufacturing. Business uncertainty rose quarter-on-quarter and remained high in manufacturing and construction, while ca-pacity utilisation improved in these sectors....

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015615591

Cyclical implications of the balance-of-payments constraint in Argentina (1930-2018)

Catelén, Ana Laura - 2025

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015549959

Nonlinearities and heterogeneity in firms response to aggregate fluctuations : what can we learn from machine learning?

Errico, Marco; Pesce, Simone; Pollio, Luigi - 2025

Firms respond heterogeneously to aggregate fluctuations, yet standard linear models impose restrictive assumptions on firm sensitivities. Applying the Generalized Random Forest to U.S. firm-level data, we document strong nonlinearities in how firm characteristics shape responses to macroeconomic...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015552264

The business cycle's impact on volatility forecasting : recapturing intrinsic jump components

Chen, Son-nan; Hsu, Pao-Peng - 2025

This study investigates the leverage effect and realized volatility (RV) of stocks in the presence of asymmetric jumps across economic expansions and contractions. We extend the heterogeneous autoregressive-realized volatility (HAR-RV) model by incorporating a two-period Markov regime-switching...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015556015

Inflation risk and heterogeneous trading down

Domenech Palacios, Mar - 2025

I examine how households adjust the quality of their purchases in response to adverse economic shocks. Using household scanner data from Germany, I document heterogeneous responses across income levels. Higher-income households tend to reduce the quality of the goods they purchase, whereas...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015591523

Asymmetric markup responses to monetary shocks over the business cycle

Blampied, Nicolás; Mahadeo, Scott Mark Romeo - 2025

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015475468

Business cycle fluctuations and monetary policy under heterogeneous information : a literature review

Baeriswyl, Romain; Clerc, Pierrick; Cornand, Camille - 2025

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015476961

Inflation cycles: evidence from international data

Americo, Alberto; Araujo, Douglas Kiarelly Godoy de; … - 2025

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015416226

Job tenure in Western Europe, 1993-2021 : decline or stability?

Goulart, Kimberly; Oesch, Daniel - 2024

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015055537

Economic assessments more sceptical again : results of the WIFO-Konjunkturtest quarterly survey of July 2024

Hölzl, Werner; Bierbaumer, Jürgen; Klien, Michael; … - 2024

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015063359

Monetary and macroprudential policies with direct and indirect financing : implications for macroeconomic stability

Bruch, Jan; Seitz, Franz; Vollmer, Uwe - 2024

We assess the impact of macroprudential measures on macroeconomic stability using a DSGE model in which firms can access both direct and indirect financing. The model is calibrated with data from the euro area. We compare two different macroprudential rules (time-invariant and counter-cyclical)...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10014631259

Financial frictions and asymmetric international risk sharing

Asdrubali, Pierfederico; Kim, So-yŏng; Park, Haerang - 2024

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10014631632

Government funding allocations to universities and the business cycle : an analysis of Canada's provincial governments

Rockerbie, Duane; Easton, Stephen T. - 2024

Canada's universities each receive an annual operating grant from their provincial government to partially finance operating expenses. This paper estimates the sensitivity of provincial operating grants to the business cycle by disentangling the effects of procyclical income on government...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10014635904

Should monetary policy in South Africa lean against the wind by targeting the financial cycle?

Nyati, Malibongwe Cyprian - 2024

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015469298

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Should monetary policy in South Africa lean against the wind by targeting the financial cycle?

Nyati, Malibongwe Cyprian - 2024

Article

Granular cities

Esquierro, Leon; Silva, Sergio da - 2024

This study extends the concept of granularity from firms to cities, examining how large cities influence national economic dynamics beyond their relative size. By applying Zipf's law, which describes the power law distribution of city sizes, we investigate the interplay between granularity and...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10014636161

Loan supply shocks, prudential regulation, and the business cycle

Rudel, Paul - 2024

How do the business cycle effects of loan supply shocks depend on the state of prudential regulation in the euro area? To address this question, we first identify regulatory cycles from a cumulative prudential policy index that tracks the evolution of the regulatory stance in the euro area....

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10014636947

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Loan supply shocks, prudential regulation, and the business cycle

Rudel, Paul - 2024

Book / Working Paper

Determinants of regional business cycle synchronization in Greece

Delis, Panagiotis; Degiannakis, Stavros; Filis, George; … - 2024

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015121012

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Determinants of regional business cycle synchronization in Greece

Delis, Panagiotis; Degiannakis, Stavros; Filis, George; … - 2024

Book / Working Paper

Economic assessments begin to stabilise : results of the WIFO-Konjunkturtest quarterly survey of April 2024

Hölzl, Werner; Bierbaumer, Jürgen; Klien, Michael; … - 2024

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10014553704

Business cycles when consumers learn by shopping

Gutiérrez-Daza, Ángelo - 2024

Empirical evidence suggests consumers rely on their shopping experiences to form beliefs about inflation. In other words, they "learn by shopping". I introduce this empirical observation as an informational friction in the New Keynesian model and use it to study its consequences for the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015069687

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Business cycles when consumers learn by shopping

Gutiérrez-Daza, Ángelo - 2024

Book / Working Paper

Fiscal management of aggregate demand : the effectiveness of labor tax credits

Ferrière, Axelle; Navarro, Gaston - 2024

We use a quantitative heterogeneous agent model with nominal rigidities and unemployment risk to analyze the effectiveness of several fiscal policies in stabilizing a demand-driven recession. The model delivers empirically realistic distributions of marginal propensities to consume (mpc) and...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015084354

Hard times, hard attitudes? : the effect of economic downturns on gender norms

Berniell, Inés; Gasparini, Leonardo; Marchionni, Mariana; … - 2024

This paper examines the impact of economic fluctuations on social norms, specifically exploring the link between changes in unemployment and shifts in attitudes toward gender roles in the labor market. The results are not immediately obvious, as the literature suggests several potential...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015077935

Using data on biomarkers and siblings to study early-life economic determinants of type-2 diabetes

Alessie, Rob; Angelini, Viola; Berg, Gerard J. van den; … - 2024

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10014534782

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Using data on biomarkers and siblings to study early‐life economic determinants of type‐2 diabetes

Alessie, Rob; Angelini, Viola; Berg, Gerard J. van den; … - 2024

Book / Working Paper

EU cohesion policy and inter-regional risk-sharing : first evidence and lessons learned

Giua, Mara; Pericoli, Filippo Maria; Pierucci, Eleonora - 2024

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10014483785

Business cycle sentiment subdued at start of the year : results of the WIFO-Konjunkturtest quarterly survey of January 2024

Hölzl, Werner; Bierbaumer, Jürgen; Klien, Michael; … - 2024

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10014532547

Demand regimes and the business-cycle : feedback effects between capacity utilization and income distribution taking into account overhead labor : SVAR-estimates for Germany (2007 - 2021)

Hansen, Mads R. - 2024

In this paper, Structural Vector Autoregressive (SVAR) models of quarterly data between 2007 and 2021 are estimated to assess short-term regimes of aggregate demand and distribution in Germany. The obtained Impulse Response Functions (IRFs) of the conventional neo-Goodwinian baseline case, with...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10014490713

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