Commercial banks across the world have been implementing the Basel III accord, which is the most important international response to the 2007–2008 financial crisis. Particularly, the liquidity coverage ratio (LCR) introduced by the Basel III accord is the first global standard for banking...

Die IW-Konjunkturampel signalisiert eine gute wirtschaftliche Dynamik. Offensichtlich scheint die hohe politische Unsicherheit für die aktuelle konjunkturelle Entwicklung keine große Bedeutung zu haben. Die Investitionen – ein Indikator für unternehmerische Erwartungen – treten allerdings...

What are the drivers of business cycle fluctuations? And how many are there? By documenting strong and predictable co-movement of real variables during the business cycle in a sample of advanced economies, we argue that most business cycle fluctuations a re d riven b y o ne major factor. The...

Das Projekt hat zum Ziel, die vorhandenen gleichlaufenden und vorlaufenden Konjunkturindikatoren zu systematisieren sowie qualitativ und quantitativ zu beurteilen. Die Analysen sollen herausarbeiten, welche Aussagen auf Basis ausgewählter Indikatoren für die gegenwärtige und zukünftige...

Im Frühsommer 2017 ist die konjunkturelle Dynamik in der Welt recht kräftig. Wichtige Rahmenbedingungen für die Weltwirtschaft dürften günstig bleiben: Die Zinsen werden weiterhin fast überall niedrig sein, und das im Allgemeinen ruhige Preisklima deutet darauf hin, dass von der...

The issue of decoupling is controversial. On the back of Asia's sustained high growth, the hypothesis that the region's business cycles would become increasingly independent of the global trend gained considerable attention. Asia was nonetheless hit hard by the global financial crisis and...

Das Handwerk hat auch 2016 davon profitiert, dass die Konjunktur von der Binnenwirtschaft getragen war. Im Durchschnitt nahmen seine Umsätze um 3% zu, und damit stärker als im Durchschnitt der vergangenen fünf Jahre. Die größten Zuwächse verzeichnete das Kraftfahrzeuggewerbe (5,5%). Das...

Die deutsche Konjunktur zeigt sich weiterhin in einer guten Verfassung. Sie wird nach wie vor von der Binnennachfrage getragen. Dabei haben die Investitionen, die bisher schwach waren, an Kraft gewonnen. Hinzu kommt, dass die Außenwirtschaft inzwischen wieder positiv zur gesamtwirtschaftlichen...

This paper investigates the impact of job displacement on women's first birth rates, and the variation in this effect over the business cycle. We used mass layoffs to estimate the causal effects of involuntary job loss on fertility in the short and medium term, up to five years after...

While recurring and regular variations of weather conditions are implicitly addressed by standard seasonal adjustment procedures of economic time series, extraordinary weather outcomes are not. We propose a way of measuring aggregate abnormal weather conditions based on available local...

This paper investigates the impact of job displacement on women's first birth rates, and the variation in this effect over the business cycle. We used mass layoffs to estimate the causal effects of involuntary job loss on fertility in the short and medium term, up to five years after...

Commercial banks across the world have been implementing the Basel III accord, which is the most important international response to the 2007-2008 financial crisis. Particularly, the liquidity coverage ratio (LCR) introduced by the Basel III accord is the first global standard for banking...

In this paper, we have developed an agent-based Keynesian macro model that features a detailed representation of a banking system, besides households and firms, and in which fiscal, monetary and macroprudential policy regulators also operate. The banking system generates longer credit cycles on...

Der Haushalt der Arbeitslosenversicherung bei der Bundesagentur für Arbeit (BA) weist im Vergleich zu anderen öffentlichen Haushalten bei einem geringeren Gesamtumfang deutlich größere Schwankungen auf. Er reagiert insbesondere auf konjunkturelle Veränderungen. Dies betrifft sowohl aktive...

While recurring and regular variations of weather conditions are implicitly addressed by standard seasonal adjustment procedures of economic time series, extraordinary weather outcomes are not. We propose a way of measuring aggregate abnormal weather conditions based on available local...

Using Swedish economy-wide data spanning across two deep recessions, we examine the relationship between labor market conditions and the role of social contacts in matching labor market entrants to employing firms. We use class-plant fixed-effects models to isolate the role of social contacts...

Using a novel way to identify relationship and transaction banks, we study how banks' lending techniques affect funding to SMEs over the business cycle. For 21 countries we link the lending techniques that banks use in the direct vicinity of firms to these firms' credit constraints at two...

Die Arbeit stellt eine erste theoretische Analyse der Wirksamkeit und möglicher Probleme einer marktbasierten Eigenkapitalregulierung in Form einer regulatorischen Nachschusspflicht dar. Hart und Zingales (2011) schlagen vor, dass Finanzinstitute zusätzliches Eigenkapital aufnehmen sollen,...

The recent decline in gross domestic product (GDP) growth in India raised a debate about whether it is a trend or a business cycle slowdown. We observe a cyclical downturn post-global financial crisis due to external and domestic conditions. With global recovery strengthening and appropriate...

Although oil price shocks have long been viewed as one of the leading candidates for explaining U.S. recessions, surprisingly little is known about the extent to which oil price shocks explain recessions. We provide a formal analysis of this question with special attention to the possible role...

We examine the determinants of involuntary part-time employment, focusing on variation associated with the business cycle and variation attributable to more persistent structural features of the labor market. Our theoretical framework distinguishes between workers' decision to seek part-time...

Die Weltkonjunktur ist im Prognosezeitraum nur verhalten aufwärtsgerichtet. Zwar gewinnt die konjunkturelle Dynamik in den USA wieder etwas an Fahrt und auch die Erholung im Euroraum setzt sich - wenngleich etwas abgeschwächt - fort. Zugleich sind jedoch die Aussichten für die Weltkonjunktur...

This paper reconsiders the role of macroeconomic shocks and policies in determining the Great Recession and the subsequent recovery in the US. The Great Recession was mainly caused by a large demand shock and by the ZLB on the interest rate policy. In contrast with previous findings, the...

Resource-rich countries face large and persistent shocks, especially coming from volatile commodity prices. Given the severity of the shocks, it would be expected that these countries adopt countercyclical fiscal policies to help shield the domestic economy. Taking advantage of a new dataset...

Recent research suggests that employment in young firms is more negatively impacted during economic downturns than employment in incumbent firms. This questions the effectiveness of policies that promote entrepreneurship to fight crises. We complement prior research that is mostly based on...