This paper investigates the impact of job displacement on women's first birth rates, and the variation in this effect over the business cycle. We used mass layoffs to estimate the causal effects of involuntary job loss on fertility in the short and medium term, up to five years after...

A growing literature investigates how firms' innovation input reacts to changes in the business cycle. However, so far there is no evidence whether there is cyclicality in the effects of innovation on firm performance as well. In this paper, we investigate the employment effects of innovations...

This paper investigates the role of fiscal policies over the aggregate EMU business cycle. Previous studies, based on the assumption of non-separability between public and private consumption, obtain a large public consumption multiplier, a small fraction of non-Ricardian households and,...

About 5 percent of U.S. workers hold multiple jobs, which can exacerbate or mitigate employment changes over the business cycle. Theory is ambiguous and prior literature is not fully conclusive. We examine the relationship between multiple job holding and local unemployment rates using a large...

This paper is the first to analyze how much the probability of selecting a worker from a pool of applicants fluctuates over the business cycle. We use the German Job Vacancy Survey to construct the selection rate on the regional, industry, and national level and show that it is negatively...

This article analyses the relevance of the extensive and the intensive margin of labour adjustment over the business cycle in Germany and in the United States. Previous research has found that, firstly, the extensive margin dominates and that, secondly, the relative relevance of the two margins...

This paper reconsiders the role of macroeconomic shocks and policies in determining the Great Recession and the subsequent recovery in the US. The Great Recession was mainly caused by a large demand shock and by the ZLB on the interest rate policy. In contrast with previous findings, the...

It is well-known that the high synchronization of the business cycles among industrial countries cannot easily be replicated in standard open economy macroeconomic models without assuming that the exogenous shocks hitting these countries are highly correlated. We develop a two-country behavioral...

I empirically analyze the dynamics of business investment following normal recessions (declines in business investment that are not associated with banking crises) and banking crises. Using a panel of 16 advanced economies, I find evidence for significant non-linear trend reversion or...

This paper examines the relationship between individuals' personal exposure to economic conditions and their investment choices in the context of human capital. Focusing on bachelor's degree recipients, we find that birth cohorts exposed to higher unemployment rates during typical schooling...

This paper assesses the role of financial variables in real economic fluctuations, in view of analysing the link between financial cycles and business cycles at the global level. A Global VAR modelling approach, which has been proved suitable for modelling country or regional linkages, is used...

This paper analyzes the effects of economic growth on labor earnings in Bolivia during 1999-2012. More precisely, we develop a labor market model to capture both cycle and trend effects of prices, and production on earnings, which is estimated econometrically using pseudo-panel data methods. The...

Purpose - The purpose of this study is to investigate the relationship between oil price changes and the output growth in Turkey. Design/methodology/approach - The data were taken from International Financial Statistics databases, consisting of monthly data for the period 1986:01-2014:09....

Extending and modifying the canonical New Keynesian (NK) model, this study provides a novel approach to examine the impact of anticipated shocks called "news shocks" on business cycles. The analysis shows that news shocks are less stressful for an economy than commonly assumed. The main results...

Wir konstruieren ein neues Modell unbeobachteter Komponenten mit Markov-Switching zur Analyse von Hysterese-Effekten, also der Verfestigung ursprünglich zyklischer Fluktuationen. Das Modell kombiniert die Bestandteile einer Trend-Zyklus Zerlegung, der Identifikation von gegenseitigen...

In this paper, we derive a small textbook New Keynesian DSGE model to evaluate Polish and Romanian business cycles during the 2003 - 2014 period. Given the similarities between the two economies, we use an identical calibration procedure for certain coefficients and marginal prior distributions...

Der Haushalt der Arbeitslosenversicherung bei der Bundesagentur für Arbeit (BA) weist im Vergleich zu anderen öffentlichen Haushalten bei einem geringeren Gesamtumfang deutlich größere Schwankungen auf. Er reagiert insbesondere auf konjunkturelle Veränderungen. Dies betrifft sowohl aktive...

In this paper, we have developed an agent-based Keynesian macro model that features a detailed representation of a banking system, besides households and firms, and in which fiscal, monetary and macroprudential policy regulators also operate. The banking system generates longer credit cycles on...

Das Handwerk hat auch 2016 davon profitiert, dass die Konjunktur von der Binnenwirtschaft getragen war. Im Durchschnitt nahmen seine Umsätze um 3% zu, und damit stärker als im Durchschnitt der vergangenen fünf Jahre. Die größten Zuwächse verzeichnete das Kraftfahrzeuggewerbe (5,5%). Das...

Die deutsche Konjunktur zeigt sich weiterhin in einer guten Verfassung. Sie wird nach wie vor von der Binnennachfrage getragen. Dabei haben die Investitionen, die bisher schwach waren, an Kraft gewonnen. Hinzu kommt, dass die Außenwirtschaft inzwischen wieder positiv zur gesamtwirtschaftlichen...

This paper focuses on explaining the economic fluctuations in Bulgaria after the introduction of the currency board arrangement in 1997, the period of macroeconomic stability that ensued, the EU accession, and the episode of the recent global financial crisis. This paper follows Chari et al....

This paper reinvestigates the influence of oil price uncertainty on real economic activity in the U.S. using a four-variable VAR, GARCH-in-mean, asymmetric BEKK model. In contrast to previous studies in this area, the analysis focuses on business cycle fluctuations and we control for global...

Commercial banks across the world have been implementing the Basel III accord, which is the most important international response to the 2007–2008 financial crisis. Particularly, the liquidity coverage ratio (LCR) introduced by the Basel III accord is the first global standard for banking...

According to a growing body of empirical literature, global shocks have become less important for business cycles in industrialized countries and emerging market economies since the mid-1980s. In this paper, we analyze the question of what might have caused a decoupling from the global business...

Die IW-Konjunkturampel signalisiert eine gute wirtschaftliche Dynamik. Offensichtlich scheint die hohe politische Unsicherheit für die aktuelle konjunkturelle Entwicklung keine große Bedeutung zu haben. Die Investitionen – ein Indikator für unternehmerische Erwartungen – treten allerdings...

This paper examines magnitudes and business cycle dynamics of social security contributions (SSC). In most OECD countries studied, we document a negative covariation of payroll tax burdens with GDP and GDP growth at business cycle and lower frequencies. We assess the overall magnitude of the...

How business cycles affect income-related distribution of diseases and health disorders is largely unknown. We examine how the prevalence of thirty diseases and health conditions is distributed across the income spectrum using survey data collected in Iceland in 2007, 2009 and 2012. Thus, we are...

This paper analyzes Germany's unusual labor market experience during the Great Recession. We estimate a general equilibrium model with a detailed labor market block for post-unification Germany. This allows us to disentangle the role of institutions (short-time work, government spending rules)...

Using Swedish economy-wide data spanning across two deep recessions, we examine the relationship between labor market conditions and the role of social contacts in matching labor market entrants to employing firms. We use class-plant fixed-effects models to isolate the role of social contacts...

I provide more evidence on the behavior of small and large firms, employing the Flow of Funds data, the QFR data and other sources. The empirical test to examine behavior of small and large firms is conducted in two ways: (1) by different episodes, tight monetary policy episodes and business...

The issue of decoupling is controversial. On the back of Asia's sustained high growth, the hypothesis that the region's business cycles would become increasingly independent of the global trend gained considerable attention. Asia was nonetheless hit hard by the global financial crisis and...

Goodwin's model is a set of ordinary differential equations and is a well-known model of the growth cycle. However, its four constants require an extensive numerical study of its two differential equations to identify all possible unsteady state behaviors, i.e. phase portraits, which corresponds...

Das Projekt hat zum Ziel, die vorhandenen gleichlaufenden und vorlaufenden Konjunkturindikatoren zu systematisieren sowie qualitativ und quantitativ zu beurteilen. Die Analysen sollen herausarbeiten, welche Aussagen auf Basis ausgewählter Indikatoren für die gegenwärtige und zukünftige...

Im Frühsommer 2017 ist die konjunkturelle Dynamik in der Welt recht kräftig. Wichtige Rahmenbedingungen für die Weltwirtschaft dürften günstig bleiben: Die Zinsen werden weiterhin fast überall niedrig sein, und das im Allgemeinen ruhige Preisklima deutet darauf hin, dass von der...